Ranking the Sweet 16 games by entertainment value
The 2024 NCAA tournament field has whittled its way down to 16 teams and a slate of eight intriguing games is set to begin on Thursday.
Today, Rivals.com's Rob Cassidy ranks the Sweet 16 slate in order of watchability from an expected blowout at the hands of the defending champs to a wildly intriguing matchup between a Big East powerhouse and the SEC’s regular season champs.
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*****
8. UCONN VS. SAN DIEGO STATE
This is a rematch of last year’s national title game, which saw UConn cruise to a 76-59 victory, and all signs point to the fact that we could see a similar score on Thursday. Will posting such a flippant opinion on the internet be thrown back in my face when San Diego State ultimately finds a way to pull the upset? Probably so, but I simply can’t envision a way that this game remains close for long.
Aztec star forward Jaedon LeDee is one of the country’s most exciting players and leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, but he’ll now have to deal with the presence of UConn 7-footer Donovan Clingan, who is playing his best basketball of the season. That’s a fact that doesn’t project favorably for the 6-foot-9 LeDee, who relies somewhat heavily on scoring in the post despite having a solid mid-range game as well.
With that said, It’s the discrepancy in depth that should truly concern San Diego State fans because it seems unlikely that the Aztecs have the firepower to stand toe-to-toe with Clingan, Tristen Newton, Stephon Castle and the rest of the defending champs for 40 minutes.
Yes, March is a month that built its mystique on the back of upsets like this, but the Huskies are double-digit favorites for a reason, and this tournament has been chalk-fest thus far.
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*****
7. NC STATE VS. MARQUETTE
A rematch of the 1974 NCAA championship game, the stakes are a little lower this time around, even if the possibility of a major upset is alluring. One of the darlings of the tournament, the bid-stealing Wolfpack has won seven-straight games, and the story of head coach Kevin Keatts dumping a vat of ice water on his hot seat is captivating.
That said, time may be about to run out of Keatts and company, as they’ll arrive at tipoff as 6.5-point underdogs to a Marquette team coming off of an 18-point smacking of Western Kentucky. Few players on earth are playing better than Golden Eagles star Tyler Kolek, who’s back from a minor injury and averaging 20 points and 11 assists through two NCAA tournament games.
The interior matchup between Marquette's 6-foot-11 Oso Ighodaro and 275-pound tournament darling DJ Burns of NC State is fascinating as it’s a clash of differing styles.
*****
6. GONZAGA VS. PURDUE
At best Zach Edey has four more college basketball games left in his career. At worst, this could be the final one. That’s all to say chances to enjoy one of the most dominant college basketball players of the last few decades are dwindling quickly.
On paper, Purdue should handle Gonzaga, but the Boilermakers aren’t exactly the patron saints of high-level tournament success, having not advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2019. There’s plenty of reason to believe this might be the year, however, as Gonzaga lacks the size and physicality to slow Purdue’s 7-foot-4 gamechanger.
It’ll be up to 6-foot-10 forwards Ben Gregg and Braden Huff to slow down Edey, with Huff being just a freshman that averages 13 minutes per contest. Whatever happens, the only lock is that there will be a debate over how Edey was officiated, an argument that has become commonplace.
*****
5. NORTH CAROLINA VS. ALABAMA
A marquee ACC-SEC matchup pits North Carolina and its veteran leader Armando Bacot against Nate Oats’ Alabama squad and Mark Sears, who is coming off a 26-point, 12-rebound effort in the Tide’ second-round victory over Grand Canyon. North Carolina’s staunch defense is probably the reason it enters the game as the betting favorite, but Bama ranks No. 4 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, which makes this game fascinating.
Alabama forced GCU to shoot an abysmal 2-for-20 from 3-point range in last weekend’s 72-61 victory over the underdog Antelopes, a feat that will be nearly impossible to replicate against a deeper and more talented Tar Heels squad, but counting Oats out of big games is a risky proposition.
This matchup projects as one of the weekend’s most tightly contested games, so how UNC freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau responds to the pressure of a marquee matchup on a massive stage will go a long way in determining how things play out. The Tar Heels depend on the young prospect to limit turnovers and dictate pace, both of which he’s done well in recent games.
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*****
4. DUKE VS. HOUSTON
The Blue Devils are looking to advance to the Elite Eight for the first time under second-year head coach Jon Scheyer and will need to do so on the back of future first-round pick Kyle Filipowski, who some of the basketball-watching public has anointed as a villain. Seeing as though I personally grew up rooting for bad-guy wrestlers, I’m a sucker for a heel run so I’m hoping the Duke forward embraces the title.
The good news on that front is that it feels possible that Filpowski and his teammates lean into the antagonist role against a Houston squad that thrives on defense and will look to make this game as physical as possible.
Cougars sophomore Emanuel Sharp is coming off a game that saw the guard take a flamethrower to Texas A&M via a 30-point effort off 50-percent shooting. The personalities and styles of play at work here seem conducive to some chippiness, as Duke will have to rise to the occasion if it wants to stay with a Houston team that will come in looking to push it around.
*****
3. CLEMSON VS. ARIZONA
Arizona will roll into its game with Clemson as 7-point favorites, but there’s some reason to believe the Tigers, who have advanced to the Elite Eight just once in program history, could keep this close. If the game is to be tight, it will be because Tigers star center PJ Hall and unheralded rebound machine Ian Schieffelin manage to give the Wildcats problems in the paint.
There’s also the matter of the clash of tempos, as the Tigers will look to slow things down and dictate pace while Arizona will attempt to fly up and down the court. I’m a sucker for a battle of wills on the tempo front and the possibility of the Tigers giving a traditional power a run for its money on this stage is tantalizing.
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2. IOWA STATE VS. ILLINOIS
A dream matchup for the analytics community, this game pits KenPom’s No. 1 defensive team (Iowa State) against its No. 2 offensive team (Illinois), which should equate to a fascinating tussle. For Iowa State, everything starts on the defensive end. But even if ISU’s style of basketball can be less than aesthetically pleasing at times, the Cyclones' backcourt duo of Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey are capable of scoring against anyone and average 13.7 and 12.5 points per game respectively.
Meanwhile, little needs to be written about the Illini’s pace or offensive prowess. Brad Underwood’s team is one of the most prolific offensive groups in recent history according to certain metrics, and Illinois has scored more than 90 points in 10 games this season. The only thing keeping me from ranking this game No. 1 is the fact that it might be rather obvious which way it’s going to go early on based on which team imposes its will in the first 20 minutes.
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*****
1. TENNESSEE VS. CREIGHTON
This contest is headlined by Tennessee’s JUCO product-turned-All-American Dalton Knecht and Creighton’s likely first-rounder Trey Alexander. It also features one of the most underrated big men in the sport in the form of Bluejays center Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-footer with incredibly reliable hands and the potential to provide Vols’ star Jonas Aidoo with real problems on both ends of the floor.
The matchup in the paint will be fascinating to monitor and the fact that Creighton has become a crusader for the entire Big East, which still feels jilted by getting just three teams in the field (all of which are still alive) also creates intrigue.
Creighton double-double threat Baylor Scheierman will likely be the X-factor in this contest and is as impactful a player as there is in the sport. Scheierman is averaging 18.6 points and 11.8 rebounds in his last five contests and will likely dictate if the Bluejays can pull the upset.