McDonald's Nuggets: NCAA eligibility rule, Michigan, more
In the first edition of the McDonald’s Nuggets in 2021, recruiting analyst Dan McDonald addresses the NCAA’s decision to grant an extra year of eligibility and names his Team of the Week and Commits of the Week from the 2021 and 2022 classes.
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2021 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Did the NCAA get it right by granting athletes an extra year of eligibility?
When the NCAA announced a while back that this was a free year for all athletes and the season wouldn’t count toward players' four years of eligibility, my initial reactions were that they were jumping the gun and that it would create a mess from a scholarship standpoint over the next few years.
After seeing how football season played out and now the first half of the college basketball season, I’ve changed my tune in a big way. I’m fully in favor of the decision. Imagine these scenarios, which very likely could happen or maybe already happened and I’m not aware of it.
--- A senior football player never tests positive for the virus but gets thrown into quarantine a couple times because of close contact and misses four football games, which depending on the conference he plays in could be a huge part of the season.
--- A senior basketball player in a similar situation that quarantines a few times because of close contact, but never gets sick and he misses upwards of 10 games out of 25. That’d be a pretty awful way to finish your college career.
Let’s say an athlete actually catches the virus and has lingering effects from it that causes him to miss an extended period of time. That’d be a good reason to get an extra year of eligibility, which would probably already happen under a medical hardship waiver.
Now let’s talk about the scholarship mess this ruling could potentially create.
Because seniors could return for an extra year if they choose and not count toward the 13 scholarships next season, schools could conceivably carry 17 scholarship players next season if they have four seniors this season that all want to come back. What I’ve gathered from asking various coaches about their approach to next season is that most schools have very little interest in going much over the normal limit of 13 scholarships. Keeping that many players happy with playing time is already tough, which is why many coaches used to love the idea of bringing in one or two sit-out transfers because those were players they didn’t have to worry about playing every night.
The people most impacted by the ruling will be prospects in the 2021 and 2022 classes. Many schools have already decided to hold scholarships they would usually give out to seniors in high school because they will be bringing back their current seniors. With college coaches being off the road under a dead period for almost a full year now, the class of 2021 prospects are in a really tough spot because many coaches haven’t evaluated them in person, which makes it harder for them to put out a scholarship offer. This will also trickle into the 2022 class as coaches will be so far behind in evaluating them whenever the NCAA ends the dead period. Factor in the one-time transfer rule likely going into place and it gets even trickier.
All that sounds like it will be a mess, right? There is a phrase often used among recruiting analysts and college coaches when a school is up against the number on scholarships, but has the opportunity to add elite talent: “Somehow, some way, scholarship numbers usually just find a way to work out.”
And that’s what I believe will happen over the next few years. In the meantime, look for more good players to slip through the cracks to low-major and mid-major schools, and look for more talented prospects to end up going the prep school and junior college route.
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TEAM OF THE WEEK: Michigan
The Wolverines in the second year under Juwan Howard started the season 5-0 in non-conference play, but it wasn’t the most difficult schedule around, which I’m sure had a lot to do with scheduling difficulties given the current health situation. Here we are a few weeks into conference play and Michigan is sitting at 10-0 overall after a 5-0 start in the Big Ten play. In the past week, the Wolverines have thumped 19th-ranked Northwestern and 16th-ranked Minnesota by double digits. The Wolverines look like a legitimate top 10 team that could be in play for a Final Four run down the road.
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2021 COMMIT OF THE WEEK: Aminu Mohammed to Georgetown
It didn’t happen in the past week, but it happened since the last column, so let’s give Patrick Ewing’s program some kudos for landing one of the top unsigned prospects in the country in Aminu Mohammed. The strong, athletic 6-foot-5 wing chose the Hoyas after also considering Georgia, Indiana and Kansas State, among several others. He’ll make an immediate impact for Georgetown next season with his ability to score and make plays for others.
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2022 COMMIT OF THE WEEK: Kyle Cuffe to Kansas
Another big commitment that took place during the holiday season was Kansas reeling in an early commitment from four-star shooting guard Kyle Cuffe Jr. The New York native chose the Jayhawks over Georgia, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, St. John’s and Texas A&M. Cuffe is a gifted scorer at all three levels and should be able to help Bill Self’s program at both backcourt spots when he arrives in Lawrence.