March Madness: Four teams that might have value for Final Four bettors
March Madness is upon us. Rivals.com's Travis Graf lists four wagers on teams to make the Final Four, with medium-to-long shot value in each region. Disclaimer: These are not Final Four predictions, but teams with value.
MORE MARCH MADNESS: Reacting to the NCAA Tournament bracket | Most intriguing first-round matchups
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South Region: College of Charleston to make the Final Four (+8000)
Pat Kelsey’s College of Charleston squad has become a trendy upset pick this year, but there’s still value in betting on it long term in the tournament. The Cougars are a balanced team that has six players scoring nine or more points per game and five who average in double figures.
Charleston sits at 31-3 on the season and wrapped up the CAA championship last week. A major reason to put a little bit of action on the Cougars is because of their outside shooting. If they’re hot, they can really make a run in this tournament. They’re second in the country in three-point attempts per game, and they’ve knocked down 10-plus threes in 19 of 34 games this season.
Every player that takes the floor is a 3-point threat, and the Cougars do a good job of rebounding their misses, ranking third in offensive rebounding nationally.
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East Region: Kentucky to make the Final Four (+900)
I went back and forth between Memphis (+1800) and Kentucky here, but the Wildcats are on the easier side of the bracket and I like their matchups more than I do the Tigers. A lot of Kentucky’s potential run is going to come down to the health of Cason Wallace and the outside shooting of Antonio Reeves.
Wallace seemed less than 100% in last week’s SEC Tournament, so the early exit and extra rest could have a positive impact on his play. Reeves shot 42% from the outside in the month of January and shot 46% in February. In three March games, he’s shot 29% from three.
Kentucky struggles with interior length on the defensive end, and will face a Providence squad that features two starting forwards of 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-6. In a potential second-round matchup with Kansas State, the Wildcats average fewer than three blocks per contest.
If Kentucky can make it to the Sweet 16 in a toss-up matchup against Marquette, taking this futures wager could pay off.
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Midwest Region: Texas A&M to make the Final Four (+1000)
One of the more fascinating first-round matchups in this year’s tournament for me is Texas A&M versus Penn State. The two teams couldn’t possibly play more opposite styles than they do, with Penn State relying heavily on outside shooting and Texas A&M playing to its strenghs on physicality.
Buzz Williams’ Texas A&M team has won 12 out of its last 15 games and has a chip on its shoulder after being snubbed from the tournament a season ago. A lot of tournament games come down to free throw shooting, and that’s what Texas A&M does best. The Aggies are first nationally in free throws made and free throws attempted, while shooting a healthy 76% from the charity stripe.
Williams' team features not only free throw shooters, but tough, physical defense and one of the more underrated guards in the field in Wade Taylor.
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West Region: UConn to make the Final Four (+450)
Dan Hurley has only won two NCAA Tournament games in his career, and they were both at Rhode Island. He has yet to win one during his time in Storrs, but I believe that ends this year and there’s a good chance that the Huskies go on a run.
UConn has had a season of peaks and valleys, but it has won 10 of its last 13 games and the three losses have been by a combined eight points. I really like how the Huskies match up with everyone in their region, even the top two seeds, Kansas and UCLA. UConn has size, rim protection, rebounding and adequate shooting on its roster.
There’s not a big man that can match up with Adama Sanogo in the West outside of Drew Timme, and I’m bullish on Hurley throwing Sanogo and Donovan Clingan at teams and overwhelming them. UConn also has Jordan Hawkins, who can get hot in a moment’s notice, and Alex Karaban, who can be a matchup problem for teams on the Huskies’ path.