In or Out: Where are Pitt, Wisconsin and Arizona State on the bubble?
We’re roughly a day away from Selection Sunday, and the NCAA tournament bubble has started to settle. Most teams are well aware of their fate and won’t need a selection show to tell them if they’re in or out. For a few squads, however, uncertainty lingers.
Today Rivals analysts Rob Cassidy, Travis Graf and Jason Jordan weigh in on a handful of teams still living on the bubble as we speed toward the bracket’s unveiling
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In or Out: Where are Michigan, Rutgers and North Carolina on the bubble?
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PITT
Cassidy: IN. Every year the committee seems to do something that leaves people baffled. And in a year where the metrics don't favor the ACC, It’s definitely conceivable that the Panthers are the victim this year. That said, I think they slide in – even if they end up playing in Dayton. Wins over wins over Virginia, Miami and Northwestern should be enough to offset weird losses to the likes of Florida State. Jeff Capel’s team is 4-4 and Quad 1 games, which is a recipe for tense moments come Sunday. That said, I think Pitt slides in.
Graf: IN. Pittsburgh sits at No. 67 in the NET rankings at the time of typing this up, but I think they’re a better team than that ranking. The Panthers are currently 4-4 in Quad 1 games and 3-5 in Quad 2 games, and I don’t see their one loss in each of Quads 3 and 4 keeping them out of the dance. They got throttled against Duke in their last game of the ACC tournament, but I’m not sure how much that will be held against them. I think they’ve got enough quality wins to get into the tournament when you match their resume up with those jockeying for that bid.
Jordan: IN. Duke beatdown in the ACC quarterfinals on Thursday night aside, Pitt’s had an impressive season, all things considered. The Panthers’ 4-4 record against Quad 1 opponents is their strongest argument and they’ve got enough quality wins (Virginia, Miami, etc.) to punch their ticket. It’s even more impressive in a season where Jeff Capel, who was named ACC Coach of the Year, was sitting in a chair that was rumored to be warm.
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WISCONSIN
Cassidy: OUT. I think the loss to Ohio State was the death blow for the Badgers, who now sit on a NET Ranking in the 80s and haven't won back-to-back games since early January. The Big Ten is a bear of a league, sure, but it just feels as though there are too many reasons the committee could use to keep out the Badgers, who have lost four of their last five. Overlooking the squad’s six Quad 1 wins is made much easier for a committee that can pull the what-have-you-done-lately card. A win over the Buckeyes would have made this interesting, alas.
Graf: OUT. This is one of the more confusing teams we’ve discussed in this In or Out feature, as the Badgers have six Quad 1 wins and five Quad 2 wins to their name. The problem is that a lot of their marquee wins came towards the beginning of the season, and the Badgers are just 7-12 in 2023. They’re limping into Selection Sunday, and I’m just not sure they’ve done enough in the last two months to steal a bid, even though I’d understand if the committee held their early season Quad 1 and 2 wins in high regard.
Jordan: OUT. The Badgers are the latest example of a team failing to seize the moment, a misstep the committee has historically penalized fringe teams for in the past. There’s no way around the fact that Wisconsin couldn’t afford the loss to Ohio State on Wednesday, giving the Badgers a 1-4 record over their last five. The timing of the skid all but kills the “but they had six Quad 1 wins” argument for the Badgers.
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ARIZONA STATE
Cassidy: IN. I could definitely talk myself into Arizona State being snubbed, but also I don’t want to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.. A NET ranking in the 60s isn’t enough to calm anyone’s nerves, but a late season win over Arizona and two Pac-12 tournament wins should be enough to satisfy the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately question when you combine it with a NET ranking in the 60s.
Graf: IN. I’m going to predict that the Sun Devils do just enough at the end of the day to make it into the First Four. They won a Quad 1 game on Thursday against USC and that is what got them over the hump in my opinion. A win against Arizona on Friday could prevent some sweating on Sunday, but I don’t see that happening in tonight’s matchup. Arizona State sits at No. 60 in the NET rankings currently and have five Quad 1 wins and four Quad 2 wins to their name.
Jordan: IN. This is the likely train of thought in the committee War Room as it pertains to the Sun Devils: Give them credit, the Sun Devils picked up a Quad 4 win, knocking off Oregon State, then a Quad 1 win by taking down USC on Thursday. That gives them five Quad 1 wins headed into their matchup with Arizona on Friday. Plus, they’re Top 60 in the NET rankings. Those variables should give them a slight nod come Sunday evening.