In or Out: Where are Michigan, Rutgers and North Carolina on the bubble?
Championship week is underway, and bubble teams from coast to coast are jockeying for position and holding their collective breath. Rivals.com’s team of Rob Cassidy and Travis Graf will check in periodically this week with their takes on some of the more polarizing bubble squads and whether or not they’ll be dancing come selection Sunday. They are joined here by Rivals.com contributor Jason Jordan.
Keep in mind these are not discussions of whether or not a team is in as things stand now, but rather if they will be on the right or wrong side of the bubble when the bracket is announced.
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MICHIGAN
Cassidy: IN. Michigan-Rutgers is set for Thursday night and feels at least a little like a play-in game. I think the Wolverines will win that game, but even if UM loses, a case – be it a flimsy one – could be made for inclusion in the field of 68. It would require the committee to give them some credit for close, late-season losses to good teams, but if we’re really looking for the best 68 teams in the country, the team with a pair of productive future pros in Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin deserves some eye-test credit. Back-to-back overtime losses to NCAA qualifiers Indiana and Illinois should be worth something, but they won’t have to be, as I think UM rolls to a win on Thursday night and punches its ticket.
Graf: OUT: Like Rob said, this game on Thursday has a lot of do-or-die implications for the tournament hopes of both programs. However, Michigan is on the wrong side of the bubble, in my opinion, entering the game, and might have to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament to make the Dance. The Wolverines have lost four of their last seven and have lost a couple of heartbreakers to Indiana and Illinois that would have really bolstered their resume. An early-season injury to Jaelin Llewelyn hampered Juwan Howard’s program this year compared to their expectations coming in, and a Quad 4 loss on the resume doesn’t help things when trying to squeak into the tournament.
Jordan: OUT: The Wolverines needed to snag a win on the road at Illinois or Indiana, but ultimately couldn’t firm up their chance to dance. That puts them in quite the predicament as the No. 8 seed who would see top-seeded Purdue in round two if they’re able to beat Rutgers. I think they need the win over the Boilermakers to make travel plans the following week. Truth is, the committee is inconsistent year over year on how they weigh close games, and though Howard’s crew took the Illini and the Hoosiers - two tournament-bound teams - to the wire, the more likely scenario is that the committee goes the “close but no cigar” route.
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RUTGERS
Cassidy: OUT. As stated above, I don’t see them advancing in the Big Ten Tournament. The Scarlet Knights finished the regular season 2-6 after losing starting forward Mawot Mag to a knee injury, and just haven't looked right as of late. It’s probably going to take a victory over Michigan to get into the field, depending on how things break in with bid stealers in other leagues, and I’m not sure this team has the firepower to win this level of game at this moment in the season, based on the way it has limped to the finish. If the Scarlet Knights win, however, their healthy NET ranking should provide them safety.
Graf: IN. I think Rutgers is in the tournament even with a loss to the Wolverines, but a win would make things much easier on the Scarlet Knights. Their early-season body of work is what I believe gets them in over some others on the bubble, but Steve Pikiell’s program definitely hasn’t helped themselves over the last month or so, losing seven of its last 11 games. A win over Michigan would bring their Quad 2 win total to 5-4 and that, combined with a Quad 1 record of 5-6, is better than most other teams sweating out Selection Sunday. I’m going with Rutgers over Michigan in the matchup on Thursday.
Jordan: OUT. It’s been a tale of two seasons with the Scarlet Knights. They opened Big Ten play 8-4, got huge wins over Purdue and Michigan State then lost Mag, who suffered a torn ACL, and went 2-6. Wrong time of the year to be trending in the wrong direction, and even their trademark stingy defense shouldn’t be enough to knock off Michigan in what I believe is a must-win game for their postseason lives.
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NORTH CAROLINA
Cassidy: OUT. Last night's win over Boston College was a start, I suppose, but it’s starting to feel as though the Tar Heels will need to play for an ACC title if they hope to have a puncher's chance of making the field. The Quad 1 record is – shall we say – less than stellar, and there simply aren’t many marquee moments at which to point if it becomes close. It seems likely that his UNC team will look back at last week’s loss to Duke as the nail in its coffin.
Graf: OUT. I think North Carolina would have to win two games in the ACC Tournament to get in and I just can’t see them pulling that off. The Tar Heels are 1-9 in Quad 1 games this season and sit at 6-3 in Quad 2 games. A win against Boston College wouldn’t help them in either of those categories, and I don’t see them knocking off and winning the season series against Virginia in the quarterfinals with the Cavaliers coming off of rest.
Jordan: OUT. No, I’m not moved by their 85-61 shellacking of Boston College; I expected that. Here’s what I can’t get past with the Tar Heels: They’re the first preseason No. 1 team to suffer 12 losses, they’re 49th in the NET rankings and have a Quad 1 record of 1-9. Then there’s the fact that they had a golden opportunity to grab a resume-building win in the friendly confines of the Dean Dome over their hated rival Duke Blue Devils yet failed to capitalize. It just doesn’t give me great confidence in their ability to seize the proverbial moment. The Tar Heels would likely have to win four games to bypass the NIT, and I just don’t see it.