With the don’t-call-me-play-in games out of the way, the true first round of the NCAA tournament is set to tip off on Thursday. Today in I've Got Five On it, Rivals.com’s Rob Cassidy takes a look at five of the first day’s most intriguing matchups and offers his picks against the spread.
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Rival Views: Reacting to the NCAA tournament bracket
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Rivals150
2024 Rankings: Top 40
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No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan
When: 12:15 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
The game: Michigan is as baffling a team as there is in the field, as it limped into the bracket despite a roster loaded with talent. Some worried the Wolverines might have to play in the First Four, but they instead found themselves on the 11 line and matched up with Colorado State and NBA hopeful David Roddy.
A certified star, Roddy averages 19.4 points, 7.6 rebounds per game and can fill it up from deep as well, which could present matchup problems for the Wolverines. Michigan, which we last saw losing a Big Ten tournament game to Indiana, will also be without point guard DeVante’ Jones, who is recovering from a concussion he suffered in practice. The Wolverines do, however, have a size advantage at most positions and could clamp down on a Rams team that ranks 20th in offensive efficiency and relies on scoring points in bunches to win games.
The pick: Under 137 points
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No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
When: 12:40 p.m. ET
TV: truTV
The game: Each year there’s a first-round upset that nobody shuts up about picking. This year, South Dakota State stands at the center of that conversation. The Jackrabbits are two-point underdogs, so it’s not as though they’re tasked with pulling off something historic. SDSU is 17-14-1 against the spread this season, after all. The matchup between Providence big man Nate Watson (13.8 points and 5.4 rebounds per game) and South Dakota State’s Doug Wilson could determine how this game goes.
They say March is about guard play, but this one will be won in the paint. South Dakota State hasn’t lost since December and is capable of putting points on the board. We here at I've Got Five On It want to believe in the little guy as much as anyone, but the Jackrabbits' only regular-season game against an NCAA tournament team ended in a 16-point loss to Alabama. As a proud contrarian, I’ll take the more battle-tested Friars to cover.
The pick: Providence -2 (but also maybe over 149.5)
No. 9 Memphis vs. No. 8 Boise State
When: 12:45 p.m. ET
TV: TBS
The game: There are few teams more fascinating than Memphis, whose roller coaster of a season hasn’t been short on peaks or valleys. The Tigers limped out of the gates and lost former high school phenom Emoni Bates back on Jan. 27, which, coincidently or not, is around the time things started looking up for Penny Hardaway’s bunch. The Tigers are 10-2 since Bates was sidelined by what people are calling a back injury and are led by double-double machine Jalen Duren, a wrecking ball of a center that will almost certainly be off to the NBA after the season.
Boise State is not a team without intrigue, however, as the Broncos won the Mountain West, which was stronger than it has been in years. They will need to dictate pace in the contest and limit what a more athletic Tigers team is allowed to do in transition. It’ll be up to 6-foot-10 Mladen Armus, a Serbian import, to slow Duren. That’s quite an ask for a guy giving up nearly 20 pounds to a projected lottery pick.
The pick: Memphis -2.5
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Marquette
When: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: TBS
The game: The Shaka Smart era at Marquette is young but it already seems more like the successful run the seasoned head coach had at VCU than it does the not-so-memorable one he had at Texas. North Carolina feels slightly over-seeded based on an impressive but isolated late-season win over Duke, but Hubert Davis’ talented roster is certainly capable of standing toe-to-toe with almost anyone.
That said, UNC’s three-point defense has been questionable at times, so matching up with a Golden Eagles team that likes to fire away is less than ideal. By virtue of a down ACC, Marquette is every bit as proven as the Tar Heels, as it holds wins over NCAA tournament teams Illinois, Villanova, Providence and Seton Hall. The performances of Marquette’s Justin Lewis and Cam Jones, who have combined to make 111 3-pointers this season, will dictate how this one goes.
UNC holds a distinct size advantage in this matchup however and needs to dominate the boards in order to advance. The Tar Heels may well eek this out, but winning by four is asking a lot.
The pick: Marquette +3.5
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No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont
When: 9:20 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
The game: The dichotomy of Arkansas was on full display in last week’s SEC tournament, as the Razorbacks cruised past LSU with a double-digit victory a day before being powerbombed through a table by Texas A&M, to which it lost by 18. The two-game stretch was a microcosm of what this team has been. It started SEC play 0-3 before turning things around to finish fourth in the league.
Meanwhile, steadier but less tested Vermont has a roster stacked with seniors and has gotten hot at the right time. It also ranks fifth nationally in field goal percentage. Still, Arkansas ranks 16 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and can frustrate most anyone when it dials up the intensity.
I think the Razorbacks ultimately win this game, but the Hawgs simply aren’t consistent enough to trust when it comes to covering five points.
The pick: Vermont +5
