With the regular season now in its final month and recruiting news remaining relentless, Rivals national recruiting analysts Rob Cassidy and Dan McDonald tackle three of college basketball’s most interesting topics and debate whether each statement is true or false.
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MORE: Five predictions from Rob Cassidy | Four-star Gradey Dick chooses Kansas
2021 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Top 30
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1. The Big 12 is the second-best league in the country
McDonald's take: FACT. The Big Ten is clearly the best conference with four of the top seven teams in the country right now, but the Big 12 is also a really good and deep conference. There are probably seven teams that could potentially make it to the Sweet 16 or better, and teams like Baylor and West Virginia feel like real national title contenders the way they’ve played all season.
Cassidy's take: FACT. Baylor and West Virginia get a ton of praise, and rightfully so. The Bears are absolutely elite and the Mountaineers are a legit Final Four contender, but the depth of the Big 12 is almost as remarkable as the talent at the top. The Kansas squad that knocked off Baylor, while not a typical Jayhawk juggernaut, is certainly capable of getting hot in March, as is Texas. Then there’s Oklahoma State, a team equipped with a talented young core led by the likely top pick in this year’s NBA Draft. Cade Cunningham’s supporting cast is starting to get the credit it deserves and the Pokes have the look of a team that should be hanging around on the second weekend of the NCAAs - and possibly beyond.
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2. At least one team will exit the NCAA Tournament because of COVID-19 protocols.
McDonald' take: FICTION. I’m going with the optimistic take on this one, that we’re going to have a great month of basketball and that cancellations because of the virus are a thing of the past. I’d be shocked if these teams don’t take this protocols very seriously, which obviously doesn’t guarantee that problems won't arise, but I think we’re going to make it through the tournament pretty smoothly.
Cassidy's take: FACT. Having teams travel all over the country for conference tournaments and then descending on Indianapolis for the NCAA Tournament is … uh … asking for it? Add in the fact that some states are relaxing mask mandates and I think we’ll see at least one program’s postseason ruined by this pandemic. Nobody wants to see that happen, but it feels more likely than not. You can try to be as careful, but this event includes a lot of people doing a lot of traveling, and it’s hard to see how they pull it off without one single infection. That said, I hope I’m wrong about this one.
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The Big Ten will have two (or more) representatives in the Final Four.
McDonald's take: FICTION. If you go ahead and put Gonzaga and Baylor in the Final Four, that means the Big Ten would need to grab both of the other two spots to hit the number. With how crazy the tournament can be, I’ll say that they only have one representative on the final weekend of the season, with that likely being Michigan. The Wolverines are the best team in the league and are built to make a run, although Illinois certainly looks dangerous, even without Ayo Dosunmu.
Cassidy's take: FACT. Gonzaga and Baylor are the two best teams in America, but the best teams don't always make the Final Four, so I’m not going to pencil in either team at this point. The Big Ten has three teams capable of making that sort of run, and maybe a fourth that could get there with a little luck. Michigan, Illinois and Iowa are all contenders of differing strength. And if Purdue or Ohio State catches a break or two … well, who knows?
Making this sort of prediction is nearly impossible without seeing the bracket, obviously, but I’m daring to dream here and two Big Ten teams sounds plausible.
