The 2021-22 college basketball season is just weeks away and there’s no shortage of preseason debate to be had. It feels like high time for a round of FACT or FICTION, in which Rivals.com’s Rob Cassidy, Jamie Shaw and Dan McDonald receive three statements related to the sport and debate whether each is true or false.
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Commitment breakdown: Chris Bunch chooses Syracuse
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Rivals150
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1. BOB HUGGINS IS RIGHT. THE POWER FIVE SHOULD SET UP ITS OWN TOURNAMENT TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS AND ENSURE THE FUTURE VIABILITY OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL.
Cassidy: FICTION. Bob Huggins may be my favorite character in all of college athletics, but he lost me with this one. I get his point. His idea is almost certainly better for ratings and profitability. There’s no disputing that. Thing is, I simply don’t care at all about any of that stuff. The sport’s bottom line means literally nothing to me, and I have a really hard time supporting an idea that will result in already rich people getting even richer. If somebody not named Rob Cassidy has to drive an Audi instead of a Porsche because North Dakota State continues to play Kansas in March, so be it. A separate tournament for power conference schools would be a total money grab and it’s our duty as fans to prevent such a soulless idea.
Shaw: FACT. it is an old business strategy, your top 20 percent bring in about 80 percent of revenue. Even looking at it from our standpoint at Rivals, the Power Five team sites are what drives the traffic. While some mid-major fan bases are as passionate as any, they simply do not drive numbers on the larger scale. According to Forbes, there is only one non-Power Five team in the top 20 college basketball brands, that is Marquette from the Big East. I can continue to spout off stats and sayings, however, while people root for storylines and Cinderellas, when it comes down to it, more people tune in to teams and brands. Football has shown a pathway with their BCS and FBS model. Bring along the Big East and cherry-pick the likes of Gonzaga and a couple of others. With the shifts already starting to happen in conference alignment, I think that we could be closer to something like this happening than we have ever been.
McDonald: FICTION. Part of what makes college basketball great is the storylines that come out of March Madness when teams like Loyola-Chicago or VCU or George Mason make a deep run out of nowhere. I really don’t think anything needs to change with the current format of the sport. In the current scheduling format, we always get very good non-conference matchups, great conference games, and a really fun postseason. No reason to mess with it with all the other changes going on in the sport right now.
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2. OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT IN ITS FIRST YEAR UNDER PORTER MOSER.
Cassidy: FICTION. The Big 12 is an absolute bear of a league, and the bottom half of the conference should be more competitive than it was a year ago. Then there’s the fact that a coaching change in the age of the transfer portal is a different beast. Year one of a new coaching regime can be treacherous and will be made more challenging because the Sooners aren’t particularly deep or experienced. Guards Umoja Gibson and Elijah Harkless will be expected to take steps forward this year and lead a roster full of newcomers. This isn’t to say Oklahoma has no chance of making a run to the tournament. The question wouldn’t have been posed if it had an easy answer. I’m just playing the odds.
Shaw: FICTION. Oklahoma lost five of its top seven scorers off last year's 16-11 team that won a game in the NCAA Tournament. They bring in six transfers including the Groves brothers - Tanner and Jacob - from Eastern Washington and Jordan Goldwire (12 starts last year) from Duke. Is the talent on this roster good enough to compete in a very good Big 12? Then there is the question of whether Porter Moser is a good coach. In his last four years at Loyola-Chicago, Moser has accumulated a 99-36 record with trips to the Sweet 16 and the Final Four. Prior to that four year run, Moser was 194-205, with a single postseason appearance (the 2015 CBI), over his 13-year career as a Div. I head coach. I am taking a wait and see approach with this year's Oklahoma team.
McDonald: FICTION. I’m a huge fan of Porter Moser as a coach and think he will do a great job at Oklahoma. He’s putting together a terrific 2022 class on the recruiting trail. However, I think the Sooners just lost too much from last year and don’t have quite enough to go dancing this season. The Big 12 is still pretty good and I see Oklahoma finishing somewhere between sixth and eighth, which I don’t think will be quite good enough to be on the right side of the bubble.
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3. MEMPHIS AND ITS LOADED FRESHMAN CLASS WILL WIN THE AAC REGULAR SEASON TITLE.
Cassidy: FICTION. I think Memphis is the most talented team in the league, but that’s a different question. Freshman Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren are going to help the program to a lot of wins this year, but teams that rely heavily on freshmen stars are prone to growing pains. I’m also still a bit worried about the Tigers’ point guard situation, which may force Bates into extended minutes at the 1. Could the Tigers win the league? Of course they could. The talent alone makes it possible. Houston is the safer pick, however.
Shaw: FICTION. Houston should be the team favored to win the American. Kelvin Sampson is 167-64 as the head coach at Houston. In his seven years at the helm in Houston, he has made six postseason appearances including the past four NCAA Tournaments. This Houston team brings back three of their top six scorers off last season's Final Four team and they add two grad transfers in 6-foot-11 Josh Carlton (82 career starts at UConn) and 6-foot-4 Taze Moore. With Marcus Sasser back and Tramon Mark ready to take a big step, this Houston team is talented, experienced, and coached by one of the best in the country.
McDonald: FICTION. I’m taking Houston to have another really good season and win the AAC regular season title. Memphis obviously loaded up with its incoming freshman class led by Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren, but I’m always going to favor a talented experienced team with one of the best coaches in the country over the younger team. As talented as Memphis looks on paper, I still believe the Tigers will have some growing pains. In saying that, they could be the type of team that is scary in March as they’ll probably have the two best players on the court most nights.
