What Cassidy knows ... and what he thinks he knows

Commitments are coming off the board rapidly and recruiting rumors are flying just as fast as we speed toward the early signing window. Today, Rivals recruiting director Rob Cassidy slices through the noise surrounding a few storylines and provides a look at three things he knows to be true, in addition to two things he thinks might be true.

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MORE: Ranking the Contenders for five-star Boogie Fland

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1. I KNOW ARKANSAS IS THE TEAM TO BEAT FOR ISAIAH ELOHIM.

Monday saw the four-star guard announce a top three of Kansas, Arkansas and Villanova, but it has seemed clear for some time now that the Razorbacks are the frontrunner. The nature of recruiting dictates that no staff or fan base should get too comfortable before papers are signed, but there’s reason for Razorbacks fans to be optimistic in the wake of Elohim’s Sept. 16 visit to Fayetteville.

No announcement date has been set, but people close to Elohim expect an October commitment. And while there is plenty of time for Kansas or Villanova to close the gap between now and decision day, Arkansas feels like the clear frontrunner as things stand.

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2. I KNOW JASE BUTLER IS SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING A COMMITMENT TO ILLINOIS.

Butler’s Sept. 24 visit to Illinois seems to have yielded a strong bond and a possible looming commitment. Butler, who had breakout summer with Jalen Green Elite, will see his name in the Rivals150 when it updates next week, and he may also see his name on Illinois’ commitment list before long.

Prior to the weekend visit, UCSB was thought to be running out in front for the 6-foot-4 guard, but the Gauchos seem to have taken a backseat now that things have become a bit more serious between Butler and the Illini. Nothing is ever a lock in recruiting, but if things keep trending in the direction they started to move over the weekend, Brad Underwood may soon have his third class of 2024 commitment.

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3. I KNOW IT WILL BE ALABAMA OR CINCINNATI FOR TYLER BETSEY.

There are no other schools with a pulse when it comes to the recruitment of the four-star wing. This is a battle between the Crimson Tide and the Bearcats. The end.

Apologies to UConn fans or anyone else that feels slighted here.

Cincy and ‘Bama have separated themselves to the point where the schools in the rearview mirror are mere dots, and which one of the two it will be is the only remaining question. A month ago, I would have said Cincinnati with some level of confidence but it seems Alabama has dialed up the pressure in recent weeks and has given the Connecticut-based star plenty to think about. I read this race as a total toss-up right now, but things have trended toward Alabama for roughly a month, so Nate Oats should be praised for a strong close should the Tide pull it off.

1. I THINK BOOGIE FLAND WILL MAKE A DECISION WELL BEFORE HALLOWEEN.

Nothing has been announced as far as a decision date goes, but it’s starting to feel as though Fland is headed down the back stretch of his recruitment. I feel somewhat confident that he’ll be on somebody’s commitment list before you get your first trick-or-treater, and I feel almost as confident that it will ultimately be Alabama, Kentucky or Indiana that lands the five-star guard. The rest of Fland’s top schools have a window-dressing feel to them.

Expect the White Plains (N.Y.) Archbishop Stepinac High School star to go into decision mode before September ends and reflect for a few weeks before announcing anything.

RELATED: Ranking the contenders for Boogie Fland

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2. I THINK EITHER JASON SONON OR JASPER JOHNSON – OR BOTH – WILL RECLASSIFY TO 2024.

Reclassification rumors are fickle and have a tendency to waffle from week to week, but both Sonon and Johnson have been the subject of reclassification rumors over the past month. For now, it seems as though Johnson is the most likely candidate, but it seems safe to say that at least one of the two 2025 prospects will find themselves in the class of 2024 before all is said and done.

Johnson remains uncommitted and is considering schools such as Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Kentucky and others. Sonon is interested in schools such as UConn, Alabama, Georgetown, Marquette, Kansas and Illinois.