The class of 2024 is hitting its stride when it comes to narrowing recruiting focus and making verbal commitments, so Rivals recruiting director Rob Cassidy opened his mailbox for questions of all kinds this week.
Cassidy fields inquiries about Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville and Syracuse.
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First off, the notion that Kenny Payne and Nolan Smith “can’t recruit” is patently false. Each has had massive success recruiting at previous stops. That’s all well documented online, and I probably don’t need to go into it.
Alas, the better question is “Why can’t they recruit to Louisville?” And to that, the answer is … complicated.
Success tends to compound in college basketball. Unfortunately, failure does as well ... even in the NIL era. Fact is, it takes more money to convince a player to come play for a first-year head coach with a 3-20 record than it does to get him to join a sunnier situation elsewhere. Fairly or not, the start of the Kenny Payne era has established a certain narrative, and that narrative is going to become more difficult to break with each additional loss.
Recruiting to a team in tailspin can become a Catch-22, and the Cardinals seem to be caught in one as we speak. You can’t get better players when you’re constantly losing, but it’s hard to stop constantly losing without better players. Payne’s saving grace, however, may be the existence of the transfer portal, where talented players search for bigger roles.
In the recent past, it would take years and a hit or two on deep-sleeper prospects to reshape the roster. These days, the outlook is brighter. First-year head coach Jerome Tang built a top 10 team at K-State this season despite having just two rostered players when he took the reins of a program coming off a 23-37 combined record in the previous two seasons. That type of story is something I think we’ll see somewhat often in the years to come because of loose transfer rules. If Payne and company can have a Tang-style, portal-fueled revival next season, top-flight high school talent might start viewing the program in a different light, and the ship will have a chance to right itself.
If not, avoiding another dose of the same results will be difficult, to say the least. Of course this all postulates that Payne is retained for next season, which seems like a given for even the most embattled first-year coach, right? … Right? … Right?
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Things are going to get more exciting for Syracuse fans this cycle after a sleepy class-of-2023 run that is still yet to yield a verbal commitment. As I wrote earlier this week, I think things look good for the Orange when it comes to Marcus Adams Jr., a California-based forward that is set to crash the Rivals150 when the rankings are updated next month. Adams is said to be nearing a commitment, and his only official visit thus far has been to ‘Cuse. As long as the NIL situation is hammered out to the forward’s liking I think we could see Adams jump in the boat in the near future. The only catch there is the fact that he may reclassify to 2023, a decision about which Syracuse fans certainly wouldn’t complain.
Then, there are the big names. Syracuse is making a serious push for five-star Boogie Fland. And while that battle will be contested, to say the least, the Orange are trying like hell to get him on campus for a visit. If that happens, things might become serious. Point guard Jalil Bethea, who has already taken an official visit, is also one to watch. If I had to rank them in order of likelihood of landing at Syracuse, I’d go Adams, Bethea, Fland.
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This is going to be a copout answer of sorts because there are so many moving parts with major Indiana targets as things stand. I’d feel really good about where I stood with Liam McNeeley if I were the Hoosiers, but I don’t expect him to make a quick commitment based, at least partially, on a desire to see how the coaching situation shakes out at in-state Texas before putting a bow on his recruitment.
There could also be an additional offer or two in store for McNeeley, who is currently playing the best basketball of his career as a junior at Montverde Academy. I’d expect a much quicker commitment out of Jesse McCulloch, who is on record as saying he hopes to make a spring commitment. McCulloch has already been on campus at Indiana, but there are other Big Ten powers involved, most notably Michigan State and Ohio State.
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Boogie Fland’s recruitment has been kept close to the vest from the jump, so handicapping where Kentucky stands is difficult. The five-star guard’s only official visit has been to North Carolina, and nobody seems to know which direction the wind is blowing when it comes to his process.
I’m sure he’ll be taking some postseason visits, however, but plans for such trips are still being hammered out. To be completely honest with you, I have no idea if the Wildcats are in the running to get one of the aforementioned visits, but I’m told they sit in a good seat when it comes to holding Fland’s interest and putting themselves in position down the road, even if they don’t get a visit this spring.
