There is no slow time in recruiting. The transfer portal is humming and filling a brief lull in prep commitments with a pile of players in search of new college homes. There’s also that whole NCAA tournament thing going on.
Alas, there’s no shortage of ground covered in this week’s mailbag, where Rivals’ Rob Cassidy addresses Louisville's portal outlook, NIL contracts, Arkansas’ national title chances and a rumor about a North Carolina commit’s possible change of heart.
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More: Former Providence commit Garwey Dual explores options
2023 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2024 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team
2025 Rankings: Top 80
Transfer Portal: Latest news
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The portal is obviously unpredictable, but I think it’s worth monitoring Western Kentucky’s Dayvion McKnight. McKnight averaged 16 PPG and three APG this season in Conference USA and will have a healthy list of suitors. I expect the Cardinals to be among them. Vanderbilt transfer Myles Stute led the SEC in three-point shooting this year and also feels like a fit. Kenny Payne and company have already been in touch with Stute and should be involved until the end. Illinois defector Skyy Clark is obviously already in the fold.
The bigger picture is more interesting, however, because the portal is rightfully the favorite drug of Louisville fans in search of optimism after a four-win season that felt like a horror movie. A quick turnaround is more possible than ever in the new era of college basketball, and Louisville has the resources to be able to pull it off.
Is a turnaround certain? Not even close, but I’d feel lightyears more comfortable coming off 4-28 in 2023 than I would have in 2013, before transfers and legal cash were involved. The Cardinals have proven to have the NIL backing capable of making splashes in recent weeks, so I’d expect them to be players for transfer market heavy hitters even beyond those mentioned above. The ability to provide a big stage for players that have proven themselves at smaller high-major schools or the mid-major level is still attractive. As is the fact that Payne is going to have some serious freshman talent in the form of five-star Dennis Evans and (possibly) top-25 prospect Trentyn Flowers (pending reclassification) on next year’s roster.
Is the situation at Louisville ideal? Goodness no, but I’ve seen plenty of coaches that are dead in the water. Payne is not that. The signs of life are obvious and widespread … for now. I think the last few weeks of activity will play well in the transfer market, where the Cardinals will be one of the more active teams in the country. I’m confident that if next year looks like this year at the KFC Yum! Center, it won’t be because the staff failed to attract talent. That fact provides hope, sure, but it also makes year two of the Payne era feel like an undeniable make-or-break situation because another disaster season is likely to dry up the talent pipeline in a hurry.
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I think I can talk myself into this with the help of some mental gymnastics. Do I actually believe it’ll happen? Probably not, but let’s not act like Arkansas is Princeton or FAU here. I can make a case.
Back when I was on the Kansas State beat and Frank Martin was the Wildcats’ coach, one of the things he used to say is that you need four pros to have a chance of winning a national title – two surefire NBA players and at least two professional-level players that will eventually land overseas or whatever.
I’ve done very little research into this theory other than looking at the past five champions, all of which seem to check those boxes. The good news here is that Arkasnas does as well. Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr are lottery picks and, at the very least, Ricky Council IV and Jordan Walsh have pro careers in front of them down the road whether they catch on in the league or elsewhere. The other painful cliche that seems true is that guard play wins in March, and there aren’t many teams out there that stand toe to toe with the Razorbacks’ backcourt when it’s healthy and clicking, which it seems to be doing at this very moment.
UConn’s size inside (Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan) is going to be a problem this week, but if the Razorbacks find a way through the Huskies by using their superior depth, I actually think they match up better with both UCLA and Gonzaga.
The Razorbacks are +3500 to win the title for a reason, so making a truly compelling case is difficult but you could do worse than hitching your wagon to a deep roster led by future pros, right?
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It’s possible I suppose. On one hand, the era of player empowerment suggests locking a player into an NIL contract and going after him when he bounces would run counterproductive to the school’s long-term interests.
On the other hand, capitalism.
Most times, NIL money doesn’t come up front in a lump sum, especially not when the figures are massive. With that in mind, it almost feels like it would take a case where a business stands to suffer big, bottom-line affecting losses because a player reneged on his NIL contract for this to take place.
In most cases, the hit you’d take in public opinion and in the recruiting world are likely to be massive. It almost feels like it would have to be a national-level prospect with a national-level NIL contract that opens this version of Pandora's Box because the company wouldn’t be closely tied to one specific school.
A NIL collective and the local Toyota dealership aren’t going to wade in those waters. The juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze and those deals don’t often involve large sums of up-front cash.
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The Rick Pitino Effect takes hold like venom, doesn’t it?
I can tell you only what I know for sure on Ian Jackson-to-St. John’s front, which admittedly isn’t much right now. I texted with somebody in the know this week about this rumor, and that person said, and I quote “he was still all UNC [Tuesday] and shot everything down (when the hire was made), but he’s open to hearing about it now.”
The source said he didn’t have any idea if a flip would actually take place but did point out that the rumor isn’t totally unfounded, even if it still feels like a long shot as things stand today. That’s all to say conversations have taken place. This wasn’t pulled out of thin air, but it’s not something I’d sweat on March 23. This whole rumor seems to be founded on passing conversations for the time being.
Now, let’s get into conjecture. My gut says Jackson will sign with North Carolina based on simple logic as well as the fact that I know first hand how much the recruiting process and the attention that came with it bothered Jackson. I just can’t see him pulling the trigger on something like this and inviting a tsunami of attention that bothered him so much a few months back.
Even with Pitino in the driver’s seat, a flip from North Carolina to St. John’s is a risky proposition, and Jackson isn't the type of prospect that needs to take that kind of risk. That said, I’ve seen stranger things happen. I wouldn’t dismiss it entirely, but I wouldn’t start losing sleep just yet. Nothing is imminent.
