The Breakdown: Monta Ellis vs. Louis Williams

As the post season all star games approach and speculation grows concerning which high school players will enter the draft, two guards appear destined to follow in the footsteps of Sebastian Telfair. South Gwinnett (Ga.) High School combo guard Louis Williams and Lanier (Miss.) High School combo guard Monta Ellis appear to be locks as first round draft picks.

One of the hot questions right with talent evaluators is which one of these guards is better. Who would you pick? Ellis? Or Williams?

THE BREAKDOWN

Ellis, 6-foot-2, 160-pounds, is a mature and serious minded athlete who has made definite strides in his game over the past year.

Once maligned for being unable to go left, Ellis can now attack the basket with his left hand. Once pigeon holed as just a scorer who only knows how to play in high gear, Ellis has demonstrated the ability to be a reliable point guard and the ability to change speeds, which in fact only accentuates one of his greatest attributes which is his speed. He can masterfully execute the high pick and roll, either making the dump off pass on the move or hesitate after coming of the screen and then attacking the basket.

Whether or not he can play the point has been a question mark for Williams, 6-foot-2, 175-pounds, as well. In my mind, there is no question that Williams is a future point guard. He handles the ball deftly with either hand and can make whatever pass needs to be made. Just as with Ellis, he has a scorers mentality and is not necessarily a pure point guard, but with both of these players, the fact is that they are both talented enough and smart enough to adjust to running a team.

Now, Williams is prone to get careless with the ball and turn it over, and this leads into a discussion of his mental makeup compared to Ellis. Williams is not immature, but he is not as seriously minded at Ellis and is prone to play down to the level of his competition or the level of the expectations around him. Nonetheless, Williams is a great competitor who has won the vast majority of games that he has ever played in. He is capable of carrying a team through a game and thrives on making the big shot. Just as he is capable of playing down to the level of competition, he is also able to play up to the level of competition.

Certainly, Ellis has this same flare for the dramatic and ability to rise to the occasion. What may in fact work in Williams' favor is that he has a greater upside mentally. In the right environment, Williams' mental approach to the game will markedly improve and so will the level of his game.

Defensively, they are both quick enough and good enough athletes to defend at a high level. Ellis, in conjunction with his mental toughness, is a more solid defender at this stage whereas Williams is more prone to reach and take chances. Williams' defense will improve when it is required of him. 15-pounds heavier than Ellis and with longer arms and the body frame to put on more weight than Ellis will be capable of putting on, Williams has the potential to be just as good a defender if not better.

Both are prolific scorers, and their scoring ability is basically a wash. Williams has a little better range and is a better shooter overall. Ellis, however, as more of a streaky shooter, has the ability to get hot from the outside, making him nearly unguardable.

On the drive, Ellis prefers to jump off one foot whereas Williams is a two foot jumper. This can cause problems for Ellis when he cannot get to the basket.

THE VERDICT

The case for Ellis is that he is a faster, more electric athlete than Williams. He has a mature, serious approach to the game and is willing to do the dirty work on the defensive end.

The case for Williams is that he is a smooth athlete with better length and potential to gain more weight than Ellis. Especially with his left hand, Williams is a better ball handler than Ellis, although not as fast with the ball as Ellis is. As a shooter, Williams has the edge, and he also has better range. As a two foot jumper and with a more durable body, Williams has the edge as a rebounder.

I love both these guys. They are crafty, resourceful and winners. As a competitor, Ellis has the edge right now on Williams with his more mature and serious approach to the game. Skill wise, Williams has a more rounded game. And in the end, I like Williams upside to improve mentally and develop physically.

I'll take Williams by a hair.