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Published Jan 1, 2018
Starting Five: Five things to watch in the new year
Eric Bossi  •  Basketball Recruiting
National Analyst
Twitter
@ebosshoops

Like everybody else, Rivals.com National Basketball Analyst Eric Bossi is looking forward to a great year in 2018. In a New Year Day's edition of the Starting Five, Bossi discusses five storylines to watch closely in 2018.

MORE: Top 10 stories of 2017

1. ONLY A MATTER OF WHEN AND NOT IF ONE-AND-DONE ENDS

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Beginning with the high school class of 2006, the NBA eliminated the option to go directly from high school into the NBA Draft. That change in draft eligibility ushered in the current era of the one-and-done. Well, it's time for that era to come to an end and I think we all know that it's not a matter of if, but simply when the NBA changes its early entry rules.

I don't think that there will be any changes made in time to impact the current senior class, but it is looking like the option to enter the draft directly out of high school will be back in play for the class of 2019.

Given the excitement that will generate, the NBA pumping more money into the G League, two-way contracts and many other factors, I would expect a mass exodus of high school players to the NBA if the rule changes in time.

Depending on exactly how the rule changes – most speculation is that the NBA will go in a direction similar to baseball where you either go straight to the draft or have to attend college for at least a few years – I could see as many as 20 players look to test the draft waters out of high school.

When the change happens, it's going to be a major story and it is going to have a huge impact on how top programs – particularly Duke and Kentucky, which have feasted more than anybody on one-and-dones – recruit moving forward. Assuming the NBA makes the change in 2018, it will be the biggest story in the high school basketball world.

2. RACE FOR NO. 1 WIDE OPEN IN 2018, 2019 AND 2020

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In the first part of the month, we are going to update our rankings in the classes of 2018, 2019 and 2020. At this time, I don't anticipate making any changes at the top where R.J. Barrett, Vernon Carey Jr. and Jalen Green currently hold the top spots in each class.

But, the races are tight and none of the three is a lock to finish the year ranked in the top spot.

In 2018, Barrett's biggest contender is currently his future teammate, Cameron Reddish. The 6-foot-8 playmaker has been outstanding and is coming after Barrett hard. But, Barrett has been a scoring machine himself and before we make any changes something is going to have to happen to overcome what Barrett did playing for Canada against USA's 18U team at the FIBA World Championships last summer. Barrett's domination of the USA team is burned in my mind and has to be taken into account.

In 2019, we've discussed several times that Carey's biggest competition is Memphis (Tenn.) East 7-footer James Wiseman. Wiseman has the length, the open-court grace and potential to be incredible, but Carey's edge in skill, toughness and physicality at this point likely means that he holds onto the top spot at least until we head into the summer. The big question, is whether we'll be able to watch either of these guys play the college game.

Finally in 2020, Green is the best pure scorer in the class and the 6-foot-5 shooting guard is a breathtaking athlete. He needs to get stronger, but so does any other prospect in 2020. Forward Isaiah Todd has been Green's biggest competition to date, but do-it-all wing Scottie Barnes is one who has emerged as a sleeper candidate for the top spot. Who else can challenge?

3. FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS

I've been struck by how parity looks to have invaded college basketball. There's still not any team that I am convinced has risen above the others as one that should be considered a lock for the Final Four, but at the midway point I'm willing to make some predictions on who makes it to San Antonio in late March.

Michigan State: The Spartans were my preseason pick to win the national championship and I'm still pretty bullish on the Spartans. They have a college star in Miles Bridges, the rest of the sophomore class has stepped up. They have leadership, they have depth and they have a freshman with star potential in Jaren Jackson. There are some legitimate questions about whether or not Cassius Winston and LouRawls Nairn are title type point guards, but every team has questions to answer and I think under Tom Izzo, the Spartans have the fewest. Their only loss so far is to Duke at the beginning of the season and outside of Arizona State, the Spartans are the one title contender without a "what the heck?" loss.

Duke: The Blue Devils have one of those "what the heck?" losses courtesy an ACC opening loss at Boston College in December. They've also lived on the edge in several close games. That being said, the Blue Devils are as battle tested as anybody out there right now and they have a bonafide college superstar in freshman big man Marvin Bagley III. Fellow freshman Trevon Duval isn't a threat at all with the jump shot from the point guard position, but he can make things happen off the dribble. Will the Blue Devils develop their bench more? With the firepower they have in their starting lineup will it even matter?

Arizona: The Wildcats were a mess early on. They lost three straight in November and were right on the edge of another three-game losing streak when they gutted out wins late against UNLV, Texas A&M and Alabama. On Saturday they disposed of a terrific Arizona State team at home and led by monster freshman big man DeAndre Ayton and motivated junior wing Allonzo Trier, the Wildcats look to have totally righted the ship. I'm still not sure about Parker Jackson-Cartwright as a Final Four point guard, but the Wildcats have size, depth and the ability to score.

Toss Up: Call it a cop out if you want, because it is. But, there's not yet a fourth team that really strikes me. Villanova, Xavier, Wichita State, Arizona State, Kansas, Kentucky and maybe North Carolina appear to me as the most likely but I'm not quite ready to hang my hat on anyone. Get back to me at the end of the month on this one.

4. WILL THERE BE RESOLUTION TO THE CORRUPTION SCANDAL?

The federal investigation into corruption in college basketball has already had a significant impact. It cost Rick Pitino his job at Louisville, it has wreaked havoc on recruiting classes at Auburn, Arizona, Louisville, Oklahoma State and USC. The investigation dragged college basketball and recruiting through the mud.

The question is, what's next? Do the feds have much more than the initial allegations of assistant coaches taking bribes, adidas arranging payment to a couple of players and a few players getting some money from coaches to consider agents or their universities? Don't get me wrong, these are all bad things and have made for some terrible headlines. But, if what was initially reported turns out to be all the feds can come up with then either cheating isn't nearly as rampant as many thought it to be or schools are just so incredibly good at it that not even the feds can catch them after investing tons of time and money into an investigation. I'm really curious to know which it is.

I'm also curious to find out what happens to Jahvon Quinerly? He's not named in any of the reports, but he's been reasonably identified as a player who allegedly took money from assistant Book Richardson to commit to Arizona. In the aftermath Quinerly decommitted from the Wildcats and while there's been some interest in him, his recruiting is incredibly slow for a five-star point guard available in the winter of his senior year.

Will 2018 bring resolution to the case? Will it bring more salacious charges? Or have we pretty much seen what we are going to see out of the case?

5. WHAT KIND OF IMPACT CAN ZION WILLIAMSON HAVE IN COLLEGE?

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The more I think about Zion Williamson and what kind of impact he'll have on the college game, the more I realize that I've never really encountered somebody like him in my career reporting on and scouting high school players. Is he a new age Charles Barkley or Larry Johnson? Is he an overhyped YouTube sensation whose incredible athleticism has hidden some pretty big flaws in his game? I'm still really not sure.

The last time I saw Williamson play was at USA Basketball. He was good there. I loved his passion. I do think his playmaking off the dribble translates and there's still no doubting his ability as a rebounder and freak finisher at the rim. But, he was also in poor shape (272 pounds) and his jump shot was not a factor.

Williamson has missed most of his senior season due to injury thus far and even before that his Spartanburg (S.C.) Country Day squad had backed out of several high-level high school events. How will he look when he returns to the floor (supposed to be this month)? More importantly, what type of condition will he be in and will that impact what he can do when he arrives on a college campus in the summer?

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina are most often mentioned and I suppose you could throw South Carolina in there too. Currently, I'm betting that it comes down to Clemson or Kentucky for his college destination. I don't see Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton or Marvin Bagley III numbers from Williamson as a freshman and I think that wherever he lands it would bode well for him to be surrounded by as many shooters as possible to help open the floor for him.

So what kind of impact can Williamson have as a freshman? The answer is that I'm still not totally sure. I think it's reasonable to believe he'll be one of the best freshmen in the country next year, but even after years of watching him, more information is needed to feel good about any kind of prediction in regards to how significant his impact could be from day one.

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