Rivals Roundtable: Reclassification odds, rising coaches, Juwan Howard
Friday is roundtable day at Rivals, and this week’s edition is a grab bag of sorts. Today, our analyst duo of Jason Jordan and Rob Cassidy dig into three questions that deal with three very different subjects related to the college basketball world, as they explore reclassifications, rising stars in the coaching industry and the situation playing out at Michigan.
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1. There’s a lot of reclassification buzz out there right now. Which prospect are you most confident will ultimately end up in a different class?
Cassidy: I think five-star guard Mikel Brown is going to end up in the 2024 class and be on campus at Alabama, Texas or Ole Miss next season. The buzz suggesting Brown will ultimately make the jump from 2025 to 2024 is getting stronger by the week, and I feel pretty good saying it’s close to a lock based on conversations I continue to have with people close to the situation.
Ultimately, if the fit is there, I think it would be a pretty good choice for Brown who has added significant length and muscle over the past year and looks a lot more college-ready than he did even six months back. I wouldn’t anticipate a reclass announcement until Brown chooses a school, which will likely happen early in the spring.
Jordan: I could see 2026 forward Sebastian Wilkins jumping up to 2025 in the end. His development this season and his versatility at 6-foot-8 should translate into ascension in the Rivals150 and ultimately earn him even more offers.
West Virginia, Rutgers, Providence, UMass, St. John’s, Georgetown, Virginia and Texas A&M are all involved. Wilkins has had multiple 20-point games for Brewster in the Nike EYBL Scholastic this season and with a productive summer the No. 38 prospect could potentially make a move.
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2. Which coach do you think has most effectively used this season to put himself in conversations for bigger jobs down the road?
Cassidy: Before the South Carolina faithful come for me, let me just say that I’m not suggesting Lamont Paris is going to leave them. I am, however, saying that there may be some knocks at his door. Paris has shown the ability to remake a roster in a hurry, which might be the most important skill for coaches in the modern era. Sure, last year’s 11-21 disaster can’t be struck from the record completely, but it’s easy to forget that Paris took the job seven months prior to the start of the season (and still managed to land the commitment of five-star G.G. Jackson), so the rocky start to his tenure shouldn’t be equally weighted with what he’s doing in year two.
Paris seems to have the Gamecocks on track to land in the NCAA tournament for the second time since 2004. I have no reason to think he’ll bolt from Columbia, but he’s trending toward having the opportunity to do so down the road. Nobody has changed the narrative about himself quicker.
Jordan: It has to be Damon Stoudamire. In his first year at Georgia Tech, Stoudamire has already knocked off both Duke and North Carolina in the same season; that’s the first time that’s happened in 45 years. The win over the Tar Heels gave the Jackets their fifth quad-one win of the season. Now, yes, they’re 3-7 in conference play and will likely need to improbably run the table to be playing in March, but the question said ‘down the road.’ Stoudamire is setting a solid foundation and making the base and its supporters, financial and otherwise, believe again. That will bring resources that will ultimately send big fish to Atlanta. Stoudamire’s star is on the rise.
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3. Do you think the Juwan Howard situation at Michigan is salvageable or should the program and coach go their separate ways following the season?
Cassidy: Man, this is a tough one because one of my strongest held beliefs is that it’s easier than ever to recover from a backslide in the transfer portal era. That said, I’ve seen almost nothing that suggests a quick recovery is coming considering things have in some ways gotten even worse since the Wolverines finished the 2022-23 season with a 18-16 record and solidly on the outside of the NCAA tournament conversation.
That said, I think firing a coach after just four full seasons is risky, even if the Wolverines do as expected and miss the postseason once again. I think if Juwan Howard wants to be back, he should get one more year to the right ship. I understand expectations in Ann Arbor are high, but the ease with which the roster can be rebuilt in the offseason should Howard truly embrace the portal is worth considering … at least for one more year. It’s not as though he’s been totally unsuccessful in his run as the head coach, after all.
Jordan: All bad in Ann Arbor; the Wolverines have lost four straight, including nine of their last 10, and sit at the bottom of the Big Ten. Cringe. Now, of course there are some variables in play that have contributed to this like Howard missing the start of the season for health reasons and missing Dug McDaniel for academic issues.
Still, none of that matters if you’re winning or even remaining competitive. The problem is that the Wolverines are really bad defensively, and that tends to weigh heavier on bad coaching than an erratic offense. None of this bodes well for Howard’s future at Michigan.