National recruiting analysts Rob Cassidy, Jamie Shaw and Russ Wood tackle several topics about college basketball and recruiting.
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MORE CASSIDY: Teams with a scary NCAA draw
2021 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Top 30
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Which first-round matchup has you most excited?
Cassidy: Everyone loves points, right? I mean, how could you not? With that said, let me present to you Arkansas and Colgate. It’s fitting that the Razorbacks watched the selection show from Indianapolis Motor Speedway because their first round game is going to be a drag race. Colgate averages 16 seconds per possession, while Arkansas plays even faster than that, averaging 15.9. The Vegas over/under opened at 163 and it seems like the over might be the play. The Razorbacks will likely win this game, but it seems like the Raiders could make this more competitive than some think if they shoot as well from deep as they have for much of the season.
Shaw: Ohio State vs. Oral Roberts. Oral Roberts is ridiculously fun to watch, led by a pair of players who have pro-type upside with 6-foot-8 Kevin Obanor (18.2 points, nine rebounds) and 6-foot-1 Max Abmas (24.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists). It is an interesting matchup as Abmas mirrors Ohio State's best guard in Duane Washington (15.8 points) and Obanor mirrors Ohio State's best player in forward EJ Liddell (16.1 points, 6.4 rebounds). Can Oral Roberts win? Possibly. But I have enjoyed watching Oral Roberts this season and I am eager to see how it does in this matchup. Another fun fact about Abmas, he is a Biomedical Chemistry major at Oral Roberts.
Wood: The Connecticut/Maryland matchup is intriguing to me. Two very good defensive teams which should lead to a rock fight. Somehow Maryland must limit Connecticut’s offensive rebounds. The Huskies tied for 10th in the nation in that category. This game could come down to who has the ball last.
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Which seed lower than a 10 has the best chance of winning its first-round game?
Cassidy: Winthrop is the sexy pick for a reason. The Wildcats simply aren’t the same team without Collin Gillespie and are probably over-seeded. I’ll go another direction, though, and say I think either Drake or Wichita State beats USC, but the Shockers may well be the more dangerous squad. The Shockers just snuck into the field, but they’ve played better as of late and have proven themselves capable of being a team that can stand toe-to-toe with big-time competition. WSU downed No. 2-seeded Houston less than a month ago and nearly knocked off Oklahoma State early in the year. The Shockers didn’t have a ton of chances to collect marquee wins this season and could be a very dangerous bunch if they get hot.
Shaw: Winthrop. Villanova lost Gillespie, then subsequently lost to both Providence and Georgetown. In fact, Villanova has lost five of its last 10 games and there is also a possibility of not having Justin Moore, who is dealing with an ankle sprain. Jay Wright is a heck of a coach, and Villanova still has a cupboard full of talent, but it is simply a different team without Gillespie. On the other side, Winthrop is 23-1 on the season and led by a unique star in 6-foot-7 point forward Chase Vaudrin (12.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists) and Tennessee transfer DJ Burns.Pat Kelsey is a hot name every year in the coaching carousel, and that could intensify with a first-round win over Villanova.
Wood: I don’t think Georgetown is a team of destiny, or anything like that, but I like its chances against Colorado. As a No. 8 seed in the Big East Tournament, the Hoyas have been in win-or-go-home games since they lost their regular season finale on March 6. I think they’ve got one NCAA Tournament win in them.
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Which No. 1 seed will fall first?
Cassidy: Both Michigan and Baylor have tough potential Sweet 16 matchups staring them in the face. Baylor could end up with a scrappy Purdue team, while Michigan may get itself a meeting with a long, experienced and dangerous Florida State team that I think will knock it off. This pick is more about FSU than it is the Wolverines. FSU has the build of a Final Four team. The Seminoles’ length and depth is backed up by guard play, as MJ Walker and Scottie Barnes are among the most impressive backcourt duos in the country. The Noles are also battle tested, having made light work of Virginia in a 21-point victory last month.
Shaw: Michigan. The Wolverines will miss Isaiah Livers and his 13 points and six rebounds per game. But stats aside, it is most importantly the spacing Livers provides with his 43% 3-point shooting. Michigan played all season with a short bench having only seven players averaging more than 10 minutes per game and only five who played 12 minutes or more. Losing Livers, who is such a vital piece to the offense they run, will make things interesting. Round two Michigan gets the winner of LSU and St Bonaventure. LSU has won four of its last five with the lone loss by a single point in the SEC championship game. St. Bonaventure won the A10 Tournament and has won six of its last seven games. Get past that game and the Sweet 16 does not get any easier.
Wood: I think it will be Michigan. At some point, the absence of Livers (right foot) is going to hurt the Wolverines, not just his 13.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, but his leadership. Livers is the heart and soul of this Michigan team. Over the past two seasons, the Wolverines are 33-9 with Livers and 6-6 when he was out or left a game early due to injury.
