In or Out? Handicapping bubble teams prior to Selection Sunday
As we get closer to the NCAA Tournament, Rivals.com embraces the bubble debate with a daily look at the teams on the fringes of March Madness. Analysts Rob Cassidy, Jamie Shaw and Dan McDonald will look at three bubble teams per day and attempt to predict whether they'll be dancing or find themselves on the outside looking in when the bracket is released. Keep in mind, this is not a look at how teams stack up now. Instead, it’s an attempt to project how things will look when Selection Sunday arrives.
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RELATED: Will these bubble teams make it on Selection Sunday?
2021 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Top 30
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WICHITA STATE
Cassidy: In
I feel like we really shouldn’t even be discussing the Shockers, as they’ve already earned their way into the tournament. Sure, WSU only has 13 wins because of the pandemic but keeping the AAC regular season champs out of the bracket would be a special bit of lunacy. Isaac Brown’s team has wins over No. 6 Houston, SEC bubble team Ole Miss and an Oral Roberts squad that just punched its ticket on Tuesday. The eye test tells me that WSU is better than a handful of teams considered solidly in as well. WSU has done plenty to warrant a bid.
McDonald: In
What Isaac Brown has done this year with Wichita State is one of the most impressive coaching jobs we’ve seen in a while. Inheriting a roster with several newcomers and the turmoil of Gregg Marshall being dismissed made for a tough job, but he nailed it this season. That’s obviously not why you get into the NCAA Tournament, but the Shockers have had some big wins, most notably over Houston, and were regular season champs in the AAC. They pass the eye test for me. I’d put them in.
Shaw: In
This is the feel-good story of the year and their resume speaks for itself. They are the regular season AAC champions with a 13-4 overall record and they are currently riding a seven-game winning streak, not having lost since January. To start the season Wichita State lost seven scholarship players to transfer and its coach, Gregg Marshall, resigned amid allegations just eight days before the season. Isaac Brown did more than just keep things afloat as he did a great job maximizing this roster's potential. With a top-25 non-conference schedule and a quality strength of schedule, Isaac Brown has earned the right to be a media darling this March.
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OLE MISS
Cassidy: In
Ole Miss needs a couple wins and some help, but I like how things are setting up. A first-round SEC Tournament win over a beatable South Carolina team it handled with relative ease not long ago would put the Rebs on the doorstep and give them an opportunity to collect an all-import victory over tournament-bound LSU. I’ll give Kermit Davis’ squad the benefit of the doubt here, as it has won three of its last four games relatively handedly and are certainly talented enough to avenge an early-season loss to the Tigers should it get the opportunity. Two wins may get it done if fellow bubble teams such as Syracuse, Drake or Xavier stumble this week. In the end, the Rebels have the feel of a team getting hot at the right time, so I’ll hitch my wagon to their star.
McDonald: Out
Barring a crazy run this weekend in Nashville, I don’t see Ole Miss getting in. The Rebels played their best basketball of the season down the stretch, but there aren’t many wins that really pop on their resume. I think they’ll be one of the first four out when the field is announced on Sunday.
Shaw: Out
For me, it starts with 10 losses in a 25-game season. They are also 3-4 in Quad 1 opportunities and have a Quad 3 loss. Ole Miss is playing hot of late, winning seven of their last nine, with a 52 NET Rating and a top-50 KenPom score. The Rebels start off in the SEC tournament with South Carolina, losers of eight of its last nine, and then LSU. I hate betting against Devontae Shuler, especially in his senior season, but barring a deep SEC tournament run, I do not foresee Ole Miss getting a bid.
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MICHIGAN STATE
Cassidy: In
Once, in college, I bet on a game of snooker despite not being totally clear on what snooker was. That’s to say I’ve made some impossibly dumb bets in my life, but even I’m not stupid enough to bet against Tom Izzo in March. The Spartans have a top-30 strength of record and barring a first-game exit in the Big Ten tournament all should be well in East Lansing. Like Ole Miss, Michigan State feels like a team clicking at the absolute right time and have the talent to collect a couple more wins to seal the deal this week.
McDonald: In
The good news about playing in the brutal Big Ten this year is it gave teams plenty of opportunities for quality wins that could change your season in a hurry. That’s exactly what happened with the Spartans. A month ago, it looked like a longshot for them to make the NCAA Tournament. Wins over Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan in the final stretch of the season changed that in a huge way to where I think it’d be hard to keep them out. I honestly wouldn’t even be surprised if they do some more damage this weekend in the Big Ten Tournament to help move them up the seed line to where they are comfortably in the field.
Shaw: In
At the end of the day, Michigan State has three wins over top-five ranked teams. The Spartans have also won five of their last seven games heading into the Big Ten Tournament, where they will play the 8/9 game against Maryland. Despite a 15-11 record, Tom Izzo has his guys playing great basketball and he has a bonafide star in Aaron Henry who is averaging 18.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists in his last 12 games. Sure, this is Michigan State and while the NCAA committee will say they do not look at the names, only the resumes, expect Tom Izzo to be in his 23rd-consecutive NCAA tournament this season.