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I've Got Five On It: The most interesting Sweet 16 games

Max Abmas
Max Abmas (Getty Images)

With the NCAA Tournament approaching its second weekend, the stakes are getting higher by the day. This week in I've Got Five On It, Rivals.com national analyst Rob Cassidy ranks the five most interesting Sweet 16 games and offers his pick against the spread.

NOTE: All spreads were taken from BetMGM.com and were current as of Wednesday afternoon.

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2021 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position

2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position

2023 Rankings: Top 30

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NO. 1 MICHIGAN (-2.5) VS. NO. 4 FLORIDA STATE

The top spot is not in question here. The Seminoles are the longest, deepest team in the field and are capable of giving anyone trouble on both ends of the floor. Michigan is one of the season’s most pleasant surprises and seems to beef with nearly every opponent it encounters. This is appointment television.

In the end, the game will likely go as Florida State’s 3-point shooting goes. The Seminoles are one of the better long-range shooting teams in America and can’t afford to go cold against a Wolverines squad that averages 28.4 defensive rebounds per game and will absolutely chew your face off on the glass. Michigan turned the ball over a bit too frequently against LSU and it seems like Florida State's length could give it fits on that front. No team plays with a bigger chip on its shoulders than the Wolverines, so the Seminoles' efficient offense (No. 14 in KenPom) has its work cut out for it.

The pick: Florida State +2.5

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NO. 3 ARKANSAS (-11) VS. NO. 15 ORAL ROBERTS

Hello again, Max Abmas.

The Oral Roberts star has aggressively put his name on the March marquee by averaging 27.5 points in two tournament games, sending both Ohio State and Florida packing.

Now it’s up to Arkansas to slow down the nation’s leading scorer and the mid-major darling he leads. The Razorbacks have the personnel to out-rebound Oral Roberts, which has been less than great on the boards in its first two games. Meanwhile, Eric Mussleman’s team ranks 66th nationally in offensive rebound rate, which suggests the Razorbacks could exploit one of the Eagles’ weaknesses. The Oral Roberts Cinderella story may well reach its conclusion on Saturday, but I can’t see it ending in blowout fashion. Give me Abmas and company to keep it close.

The pick: Oral Roberts +11

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NO. 2 ALABAMA (-6.5) VS. NO. 11 UCLA

A play-in game success story, UCLA has helped carry the banner for the surprisingly dominant Pac-12. The Bruins have run through Michigan State, BYU and Abilene Christian to earn a matchup with Nate OatsAlabama team, which won the SEC title after being picked to finish fifth in the league’s preseason poll.

UCLA’s balanced attack can be a problem for teams with liabilities on the defensive end, but Alabama is not one of said teams, as the Tide ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Bama star Jaden Shackelford bounced back from a rough opening round game and is getting hot at the right time. This seems like a bad matchup for the Bruins across the board.

The pick: Alabama -6.5

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NO. 2 HOUSTON VS. NO. 11 SYRACUSE

Give Syracuse a low seed in March and the Orange morph into the Undertaker at WrestleMania.

Jim Boeheim’s squad has now reached the Sweet 16 as double-digit seed for the third time since 2016. Meanwhile, Houston is looking for its first Elite Eight berth since Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler donned the uniform in the early 1980s.

The Syracuse zone gives even efficient offenses massive fits in March, and this Orange team is clearly starting to thrive in it. That said, Houston plays a staunch brand of defense in its own right. Add that to the fact that the Cougars shoot better than 44 percent from the floor and it’s easy to understand why they are a decent-sized favorite.

Do I think Syracuse will win this game? I wouldn’t bet on it, but six points seems like a big spread for Houston to cover against a red hot team with a hall of fame coach.

The pick: Syracuse +6

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NO. 8 LOYOLA-CHICAGO (-6.5) VS. NO. 12 OREGON STATE

Two of the hottest teams on earth, neither Loyola nor Oregon State are “supposed to” be in the Elite Eight. One of them will be crashing the party regardless, however, and that adds enough excitement to land this game on the list. It feels as though the Ramblers were under-seeded, as they’ve been betting favorites in two out of three games despite being a mid-major labeled as a Cinderella.

Meanwhile, Oregon State’s second-round upset of Oklahoma State and future No. 1 draft pick Cade Cunningham was monumental. The Beavers have won five-straight over teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament and star Ethan Thompson was masterful in the last round. Fifteen of Thompson’s 26 points against Oklahoma State came from the free-throw line, however, so replicating that kind of performance will be difficult against a disciplined and veteran-led Loyola team. Oregon State is going to have problems slowing down Cameron Krutwig, who outplayed NBA-bound Illinois star Kofi Cockburn in the previous round.

The pick: Loyola-Chicago -6.5

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