I've Got Five On It: Major offseason storylines
The NCAA tournament is headed toward its second weekend. And while the 16 teams still alive in the hunt for a national title will rightfully get the majority of the press this week, most fan bases have been forced to turn their attention to next season.
We here at I've Got Five On It have some compassion for that group, so this week we explore five unanswered questions that will likely define the offseason.
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Graf's Takeaways: Final day of the TB5Reports Opening Day event
2023 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2024 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team
2025 Rankings: Top 80
Transfer Portal: Latest news
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WILL RODNEY TERRY GET THE TEXAS JOB?
A compelling case can be made for removing the interim tag from Texas’ Rodney Terry at this very moment. The veteran assistant turned acting head coach has absolutely thrived in the wake of Chris Beard’s dismissal, and now has both a Big 12 tournament banner and a Sweet 16 appearance to his name.
Common sense dictates that another win or two would remove all doubt when it comes to Terry’s future with the program. The season he’s put together combined with the fact that he has a pair of highly regarded prospects in the fold for next year would provide the program with a brand of stability that seemed wholly out of reach when Beard lost his job due to a felony assault arrest just more than three months ago.
Even if he doesn’t win another game this season, however, Terry is the safe choice to lead the Longhorns on a permanent basis. There simply aren’t many proven options out there that set UT up for sustained success like the Texas native, who is likely to keep prized 2023 recruits Ron Holland and AJ Johnson in the fold. What once seemed like a longshot now seems like no-brainer, as Terry continues to ace his trial by fire in Austin.
People in the sport love to trumpet that fit, above all else, is the most important aspect of any coaching hire. If there’s truth to the “fit” cliche, it’s impossible to find a better one than the guy that has already proven beyond capable of doing this specific job. Retaining Terry would also restore Texas’ chances with prized 2024 recruits such as Liam McNeeley and Tre Johnson, both of whom were considered Longhorn leans before Beard’s removal.
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IS ST. JOHN’S ABOUT TO MORPH INTO A RECRUITING JUGGERNAUT?
Things on the recruiting front could change in a hurry for St. John's after hiring Rick Pitino away from Iona.
Yes, having a brand name such as Pitino running New York City’s most famous basketball program is going to generate buzz from prospects and high school coaches alike. That’s all fine and well, but modern recruiting is about money. That, my friends, is why this bit of reporting by the New York Post’s Zach Braziller is so interesting.
In the story, billionaire St. John’s alumnus Mike Repole, who has distanced himself from the program in recent years, discusses his desire to help financially support the Red Storm once again should the school hire Pitino, a fact that is just as important as anything else Pitino brings to the table in Queens.
So what happens when you arm one of a 70-year-old coaching legend with access to a massive bankroll and a desirable location to which to recruit? I cannot wait to find out, but it’s a good bet that the situation will disrupt the Big East and possibly the recruiting landscape of the Northeast region as a whole.
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HOW WILL LOUISVILLE’S OVERHAUL WORK OUT?
If nothing else, Kenny Payne has already proven that a four-win nightmare season doesn't have to kill you on the recruiting trail. Since the Cardinals slapped a crumpled-up bow on their disastrous year with an 18-point clubbing at the hands of Boston College, Payne has landed the commitment of five-star big man Dennis Evans and touted point guard Skyy Clark, who transferred in from Illinois. Payne also managed to snag top-25 prospect Trentyn Flowers, a 2024 wing that may reclassify to 2023 before all is said and done.
Payne isn’t close to finishing his quick roster overhaul, either, as the Cardinals are expected to be major players in the transfer market going forward. The good news is that rebuilding a roster is a bit easier in the transfer portal era than it was years ago. The bad news is that steady improvement isn’t likely to be enough to appease anyone. Going from four wins to 15 won’t be celebrated as progress. Not in this era, and certainly not at a program such as Louisville.
Fairly or not, the program's new-look roster will be expected to compete for an NCAA tournament bid right away or else the already audible grumbles about Payne will grow much louder. The good news is the second-year head coach doesn't need to look farther than the team that just bounced its in-state rival from the NCAA Tournament for inspiration, as first-year Kansas State coach Jerome Tang was left with just two scholarship players from a sub-.500 team prior to this season and now has his 25-win Wildcats in the Sweet 16.
Expectations will be high, sure, but they are attainable. Point is, if you’re going to bounce back quickly from a four-win embarrassment of a season, this is the era in which to do it. Louisville fans can take solace in that … I guess.
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WHAT OF THE UNREST AT KENTUCKY?
Kentucky’s situation is turning into one of the most complex and unpredictable sagas in the country. The Wildcats are armed with one of the most successful and touted coaches in the sport’s history, but the fact that John Calipari hasn't advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2018 has sparked a healthy level of unrest and tossed some gas on the game-has-passed-him-by narrative when it comes to the UK legend.
So what of Calipari’s long-term future in Lexington? The simple answer is ... who knows?
Calipari will almost certainly be back to lead his top-ranked recruiting class overflowing with five-star prospects next season, but if that roster yields similar results to the last five, it’s easy to imagine a situation in which UK starts to nudge Calipari toward the door and consider the possibility of a new era.
The fact that we could be approaching something that resembles a make-or-break year for 31-year coaching legend John Calipari seems outlandish when you say it out loud, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Expectations remain sky-high for Kentucky, and if a roster populated by five-star prospects with pro potential falls short of meeting them, the blame won’t fall on the players. That much is clear. Everything else remains murky.
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HOW WILL DUKE’S NEW RECRUITING APPROACH MANIFEST ITSELF?
Jon Scheyer hasn’t been shy about his plans to pursue fewer high school prospects in the transfer portal era. The first-year Blue Devil head coach has said as much publicly, and now we'll have an offseason of watching how exactly it begins to play out.
The Blue Devils have just one prospect in the fold for 2024, and how things shape up in 2024, 2025 and beyond will tell the tale. Over the past 10 recruiting cycles, Duke has averaged 5.3 high school prospects per class, a number that is expected to drop. By how much, however, is the question at hand.
The larger question, obviously, is whether or not the strategy will become the norm for blueblood and blueblood-adjacent programs, who can have their pick of proven college players in the portal. For now, however, Duke will be seen as the test case.
Should the NBA eliminate the one-and-done rule, as is starting to seem more likely, blueblood class sizes could shrink even more significantly, as the pool of truly elite high school talent will dry up even further. Whatever the case, the summer ahead certainly feels like a pivot point when it comes to high school recruiting.