I've Got Five On It: Highest risk/reward picks of the NBA Draft
The 2023 NBA Draft is in the books, and obviously there’s no such thing as a sure thing in the league but some of this year’s picks feel riskier than others. This week in I've Got Five On It, basketball recruiting director Rob Cassidy explores five of the highest risk/reward picks of the draft.
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MORE: Five prospects with something to prove
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1. JETT HOWARD
SELECTED: No. 11 by the Orlando Magic
RISK/REWARD FACTOR: Howard was one of the most pleasant surprises of the college basketball season and shot way up draft boards because of the strides he made as a shooter during his time playing under his dad at Michigan. He’ll need to evolve as a defender to stay on the floor at the next level, and there should be at least a little concern about his sample size, as his meteoric rise was based on just 29 games as part of an 18-16 squad.
The fit is good, however, as Orlando was in need of a shooter and put that need on the back burner when it selected Anthony Black at No 6. When at his best, Howard fills in the holes in Black’s game and was one of the more reliable finishers in the country at Michigan. Still, selecting him just outside the top 10 feels like a risky play to say the least. Orlando wanted a shooter and they got one. It’s Howard’s developing peripheral skills that will determine how selecting him at No. 11 looks five years down the road.
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2. DERECK LIVELY
SELECTED: No. 12 by the Dallas Mavericks
RISK/REWARD FACTOR: Lively has all the tools in spades, so it’s easy to understand why scouts like him. That said, pretending that the pick is without significant risk is naive. The 7-foot-1 prospect offers elite rim protection and the potential to stretch the floor as a shooter down the road, but it’s always been more about potential than production with Lively on the offensive end, so a bet on him is a wager on development. Lively averaged just 5.2 PPG in 34 games at Duke while shooting 68% from the field.
He attempted just 13 3-pointers during his season in Durham, but he showed the ability to get hot from outside in his high school days. His per-40-minute stats suggest good things may be on the horizon for the former Blue Devil, but a lack of consistency on the offensive end has always been a bit of a dark cloud hanging over Lively’s head.
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3. JALEN PICKETT
SELECTED: No. 32 by the Denver Nuggets
RISK/REWARD FACTOR: The Nuggets’ early second-round selection of Pickett got the side-eye treatment on draft night, and the extent of the negative reaction was probably a bit unfair because it overlooked just how skilled and well-rounded the former Penn State star actually is. That said, the defending champs definitely took on some risk by taking an unorthodox player with a less-than-aesthetically-pleasing game – a move that seems to have worked out OK for them in the past.
The questions that surround Pickett concern his lack of true athleticism and the fact that he’ll be 24 before he plays an NBA game. The pick is a bet on skill trumping athleticism, and the hope that Pickett’s ability to make a living scoring and passing in the post translates to the NBA. The decision will be an easy one to mock in retrospect should it not work out. However, the Nuggets’ front office deserves all the praise in the world for the courage to make if it does.
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4. GG JACKSON
SELECTED: No. 45 by the Memphis Grizzlies
RISK/REWARD FACTOR: Jackson’s flashes were as bright as anyone’s this season, as the 6-foot-8, 215-pound wing handles the ball well and creates shots for himself at will when he’s at his best. There’s a reason he was a highly regarded high school prospect as well as a reason that the Grizzlies selected him.. The question mark with Jackson pertains to his motor and his lack of efficiency. Obviously, you can use his lack of a supporting cast to explain his 38.4% field goal percentage at South Carolina.
Jackson was asked to bear a massive load for the 11-21 Gamecocks, but his shot selection still left something to be desired, as did his motivation on the glass, and those two critiques have followed him since his high school days. The good news is that Jackson is full of potential and won’t turn 19 until just before Christmas, making him one of the youngest players in the draft. If he matures as a player in the years ahead the risk Memphis took on him will almost certainly pay off because the raw skill set is certainly there. That sort of growth, however, may take some time.
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5. EMONI BATES
SELECTED: No. 49 by the Cleveland Cavaliers
RISK/REWARD FACTOR: It’s not like the Cavs took Bates in the first round (or even early in the second), so the actual risk is mitigated a bit. But the former mega-prospect still feels a bit like a lottery ticket, even if his brief legal issues from a dropped gun charge are cast aside. Bates was an elite scorer at the college level, but he carries the volume-shooter tag for good reason.
His shot selection can go from bad to worse when he’s having a bad game and, at times, seems to come unraveled when in-game adversity hits. That said, his length, ball-handling and ability to create shots for himself all over the floor make him an intriguing late-round prospect. He’ll need to add weight, but his skill set might allow him to shine brighter in the isolation-friendly NBA than he did in the college ranks.