I've Got Five On It: Five games to watch on Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving can be awkward. That’s not news to anyone, but thankfully we have weapons to fight back against the cringe.
Wanna zone out while your uncle tells you how many fantasy points he needs from Dak Prescott to beat Sam from accounts payable this week? Need a distraction from your aunt reading you the “news” she hunted down on Facebook? I Got Five On It has you covered with a college basketball gambling guide to take you from Noon to near-midnight on Thanksgiving Day. Remember, Iona +12.5 is your real family anyway. The Gaels and the points would never bait you into a political debate over dry turkey.
Oh, also, I’m no gambling expert and have no algorithm. I, like you, am just some guy that wants a reason to ignore a weird cousin or two, so take this advice at your own risk.
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More: The good, bad and ugly of the 2021-22 season so far
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Rivals150
2024 Rankings: Top 40
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Miami vs. Dayton
THE TIME: Noon ET -- You’ve exchanged greetings with people you haven’t seen in a while. You’re happy, Maybe there’s a mimosa.
THE PICK: Miami - 5.5
THE WHY: We knew the Hurricanes had a potential star on their hands in the form of Isaiah Wong, but Miami's other veteran guards, Charlie Moore and Kameron McGusty, are also scoring in double figures this season. Meanwhile, 1-3 Dayton has dropped home games to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay already this season. The Flyers expanded the rotation and tinkered with increased full-court pressure in their most recent loss and seem to be a team desperately searching for answers and anything resembling an identity. Miami isn’t perfect, but they’re playing confident basketball while averaging 80 points per game. Is there any reason why this neutral site game would be where Dayton figures it out and starts to click? I can’t find one.
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North Texas vs. Kansas
THE TIME: 2:30 p.m. ET -- Your aunt’s weird new boyfriend asks you a question about your job and things are starting to get awkward.
THE PICK: Under 130
THE WHY: North Texas is still finding its way without graduated star Javion Hamlet, a two-time All-CUSA selection, and could -- COULD -- get boat-raced here. A blowout would be exceedingly good for the under, as Kansas (87.7 PPG) shouldn’t feel much pressure to push the tempo late in the second half. The Mean Green have failed to crack the 70-point mark in two games against Div. I opponents this season, so it’s difficult to see them doing so against the Jayhawks. Kansas may well score 45 in the first half, but that 130 number seems a little high for a game that could be out of reach midway through the second half.
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Iona vs. Alabama
THE TIME: 5 p.m. ET -- You’ve eaten and are running low on folksy small talk phrases. You need quiet time with <checks notes> Rick Pitino to recharge your social battery
THE PICK: Iona +12
THE WHY: It’s wise to trust an Italian to protect your money. It’s also wise to trust one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history to not get blown out in an early-season game against a talented opponent. Do I think Iona will win this game? Probably not, but 12 is a lot of points against a Pitino-coached team that defends well and clearly has no quit in its DNA. The Gaels are undefeated and recently erased an early 16-point deficit to beat Liberty. Iona’s Elijah Joiner (hyperextended knee) could be ready to return to action.
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Drake vs. Belmont
THE TIME: 7:30 p.m. ET -- Hopefully things are winding down because you cannot possibly listen to another story about the embarrassing things you did when you were a kid.
THE PICK: Over 149.5
THE WHY: This is the most intriguing mid-major matchup of the day, and I’ll be betting it based on that. I guess this is a good place to reiterate the fact that you really shouldn't take my gambling advice. Anyway, let’s rock with the over here. Rooting for baskets is a good way to bounce back from the dinner conversation you had about the government implanting microchips in our arms. Drake gets up and down and is averaging 86.3 points per game. The 3-0 Bulldogs will be attempting to dictate pace against a Belmont team that could still be reeling from a 83-53 drubbing at the hands of LSU earlier this week. That said Drake doesn’t look like a defensive juggernaut and allowed Richmond’s Tyler Burton to torch them for 30-points in a recent win over the Spiders. I think 149.5 might be a bit low. We’ll see.
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Mississippi State vs Louisville
THE TIME: 9:30 p.m. ET -- It’s been dark outside for hours. You’re alone. This isn’t about Thanksgiving anymore, pal. Stop blaming your gambling on your family.
THE PICK: Louisville +1
THE WHY: Way to stick this out until the end, buddy. Have a turkey sandwich or whatever and take a flyer on Louisville with me. Is this line skewed a little bit by Louisville’s rocky start and the fact Mississippi State has built its 4-0 resume against soft competition? Maybe? That’s the hope, anyway. My train of thought states that the battle-tested Cardinals won’t let off the gas if they find themselves up late in the game in an effort to make a statement against an SEC opponent. This could well be the game that sees the squad become comfortable under acting-head coach Mike Pegues. I'm usually of the belief that talent generally wins out, and it seems as though the Louisville roster is more talented than that of the Bulldogs.