I've Got Five On It: Checking in on top five college freshmen
We’re nearly a month into the 2021-22 college basketball season and all sorts of storylines are starting to take shape. Today, "I've Got Five On It" addresses top-flight freshmen.
Recruiting director Rob Cassidy has a look at the top of last year's recruiting rankings and updates how each of the top five prospects that signed with colleges are looking so far, as well as how each player's draft stock is starting to shape up.
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2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Rivals150
2024 Rankings: Top 40
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RANKING OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL: No. 1 overall
CURRENT SPOT IN ESPN’S NBA DRAFT TOP 100: No. 1
AS A RECRUIT: Holmgren’s father played at Minnesota, but the Golden Gophers never figured that heavily into his recruitment. A late coaching change in Minneapolis certainly didn’t help either. He looked like a Gonzaga lean somewhat early in the process and signed with the Bulldogs without much drama.
SO FAR THIS SEASON: Holmgren is averaging 13.8 points, seven rebounds and 3.5 blocks in eight games that have come mostly against tough competition. He’s certainly backing up his lofty recruiting ranking, but he will likely be locked in a tight, season-long battle with Duke’s Paolo Banchero for the top spot in the 2022 NBA Draft.
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RANKING OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL: No. 2 overall
CURRENT SPOT IN ESPN’S NBA DRAFT TOP 100: No. 2
AS A RECRUIT: According to Banchero, who committed to the Blue Devils in August of 2020, Duke didn’t separate itself until late in the process. A few months after signing his letter of intent the five-star said that Gonzaga finished second. Banchero made a late push for the No. 1 spot and caused a heated internal discussion at Rivals, but we ultimately decided to leave Holmgren atop the rankings.
SO FAR THIS SEASON: Banchero is staking a claim to be the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, as he’s certainly the most developed and complete player in the country as things stand. His 17.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game have helped Duke get off to a hot start, which included a win over Holmgren and Gonzaga.
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RANKING OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL: No. 3 overall
CURRENT SPOT IN ESPN’S NBA DRAFT TOP 100: No. 4
AS A RECRUIT: Once the No. 1 prospect in the class of 2022, Duren reclassified into 2021 and committed to Memphis in early August. For months, it seemed like Duren would take the professional route but changes to NIL rules seemed to alter the course of his recruitment. The chance to play with his friend and AAU teammate, Emoni Bates, also figured into his decision. Duren chose the Tigers over finalists Miami and Kentucky, in addition to multiple professional options.
SO FAR THIS SEASON: Duren continues to look NBA ready as a freshman at Memphis, where he is averaging 11.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.7 blocks through six games. He’s established himself as a double-double threat every night and looks like a surefire lottery pick.
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RANKING OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL: No. 4 overall
CURRENT SPOT IN ESPN’S NBA DRAFT TOP 100: N/A (not draft eligible until 2023.)
AS A RECRUIT: A one-time Michigan State commit, Bates was once the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 class, but he was jumped by Duren before the pair reclassified into 2021. Like his teammate Duren, Bates once looked destined to go the professional route, but the NCAA’s NIL legislation led to him landing in college. Oregon looked like the only program resembling a threat to steal Bates from Memphis down the stretch, but the Tigers landed his pledge without much drama.
SO FAR THIS SEASON: Bates is averaging 12.3 points and 3.2 rebounds and has looked every bit the lottery picks at times. Bates’ main battle will be the same as it has been for some time, however, and it will concern consistency. That said, he has plenty of time to take that step because he won’t be draft eligible until 2023.
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RANKING OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL: No. 6 overall
CURRENT SPOT IN ESPN’S NBA DRAFT TOP 100: No. 3
AS A RECRUIT: Smith committed to Auburn somewhat early in the cycle, putting a bow on his recruitment in early July of last year. Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and LSU were also involved to different extents, but Bruce Pearl’s program led for the majority of the home stretch.
SO FAR THIS SEASON: It’s clear Smith may have been a spot or two undervalued as a high school senior, and he’s helped his stock since landing at Auburn. Smith has long had an NBA frame, but he’s developed rapidly from a shooting and defensive standpoint. He seems to be making a case to be a top 3 draft pick as his shooting stroke and energy are making a statement early in his college career. Smith is averaging 16.3 points on 46-percent shooting for the Tigers this season. He’s also grabbing 7.2 rebounds per game.