Four best bets of the NCAA tournament's opening weekend

The NCAA tournament got under way on Tuesday night, and March Madness is officially off and running. One of the biggest sports weeks of the year is, in modern America, one of the biggest gambling weeks as well.

Today, Rivals acknowledges the betting people among us, as national analyst Rob Cassidy shares what he views as the bets of the event’s opening weekend.

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Neither team plays at a breakneck pace, but it's worth noting that Nevada gets to the free-throw line early and often, having shot a whopping 818 free throws this season, which ranks ninth in the country. Dayton averages just 13.4 fouls per game, the fifth-lowest total in the country, but six of the Flyers' last seven games have eclipsed the 136-point mark. The last two times a Dayton game failed to go over the mark, Duquesne, which ranks 252nd in points per game, was the other team involved.

Take the two most recent Duquesne games out of the equation, and the Flyers have seen nine of their last 10 games sail past the 136.5 target number.

Is it a lock? Of course not. There’s no such thing as a lock, but it’s worth taking an over on a game that could see a significant number of points scored while the clock is stopped.

A case could be made that BYU is under-seeded while Duquesne is a bit over-seeded and the -9 next to the Cougars’ name reflects that line of thinking. Even that number might not be big enough, however. BYU averages 32.2 three-point attempts per game and if it gets hot from the perimeter, which we've seen the Cougars do in plenty of games this year, Duquesne simply doesn't have the horses to keep pace.

As somebody that was present at a game that saw the Dukes go 1 for 13 from three-point range at home against Fordham, it’s hard for me to imagine head coach Brett Dambrot’s team scoring with BYU. Duquesne is obviously red hot right now, having won eight straight, but the Dukes' last four losses have come by an average of 13.5 points and at the hands of Atlantic 10 opponents.

That’s all to say it’s not particularly difficult to envision a scenario where Duquesne, which shoots 31 percent from 3-point range in the season, is forced to play catch-up and sees the game get totally away from it midway through the second half.

I should note that I watched a lot of Boise State basketball this year because the Broncos were usually on late enough for me to catch after finishing my real world duties. Anyway, I ended up getting swept up by the Broncos, so I might be too close to them to get a proper read.

That said, I like them and the points.

Boise State star Tyson Degenhart gets most of the pub because of his gaudy point totals, but guards Chibuzo Agbo and Max Rice along with hyper athletic wing O'Mar Stanley can hurt opponents from all over the floor as well.

Boise ranked in the top five of a strong Mountain West Conference in both per-game scoring offense and per-game scoring defense. They're both experienced and battle tested, having an older roster that tested itself against a long list of tournament teams in the non-conference and garnering a December victory of eventual No. 5 seed St. Mary’s. Keeping all four of the Broncos’ double-figure scorers in check for 40 minutes seems like a big ask for a relatively young Colorado squad that allows more than 71 points per game. I was tempted to go with the Broncos moneyline here, but, in the end, I succumbed to cowardice.

I don’t necessarily think the second-seeded Vols are the best team in the country, but the best team rarely wins out in March, Plus, it sure feels as though the fact that they’ve lost two-straight and find themselves in what could be the softest region on the bracket means catching the SEC regular season champs at +1600 provides some value.

The Vols will likely be favored in any game before a possible Elite Eight matchup with No.1 seed Purdue. No. 4 seed Kansas is not just licking its injury wounds but not particularly deep even when at full strength. Creighton is the region’s 3 seed and provides a real threat to knock Tennessee off in the Sweet 16 but the Bluejays will have to get by red-hot Oregon or a sneaky good South Carolina squad in order to have a chance to do so.

The NCAA tournament is as much about your draw as it is your roster, so there are far worse bets than a longshot wager on a 24-8 major-conference champion with wins over a host of highly regarded teams and a relatively clear path to the Elite Eight.

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