Kentucky saw priority center target Adem Bona spurn Lexington and commit to UCLA on Monday morning. The commitment represented Kentucky’s second swing-and-miss on a big man this cycle, as John Calipari and company sunk time, energy and airline miles to court coveted five-star Derek Lively only to see him choose Duke on Sept. 21.

The Wildcats’ inability to recruit a class-of-2022 center is probably annoying to UK fans. There is probably even a faction of particularly alarmists that think the sky is falling on Calipari’s recruiting prowess. Do the two recruiting losses actually matter, though?

Not even a little.

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2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position

2023 Rankings: Rivals150

2024 Rankings: Top 40

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Swing and miss all you want; there’s no such thing as a strikeout in recruiting anymore. Not when you’re at Kentucky or a small number of schools like it, anyway. Calipari will get his 2023 center, and he’ll get it from somebody else’s roster. With the one-time transfer rule ​​ratified and ready to take hold this season, Kentucky will have a line at its big blue door.

Choose your fighter. Star player whose team has undergone a coaching change? Player unhappy with his current role? A mid-major standout in search of more exposure? A guy at a less notable program that could make more NIL money as a star in Lexington? They’ll all be represented. Roughly 1,600 players hit the portal this year, including multiple all-conference selections. There’s no telling what the coming year’s number will look like, but it’s safe to say a proven big man or two will be available.

This isn’t unique to Kentucky, though. For better or worse, the rich stand to get richer. North Carolina, Duke and a handful of other established national brands now have a safety net in recruiting. Will down years for power programs like the Wildcats or Tar Heels still exist? Of course they will. Sustained stretches of misery, however, may be in short supply with a transfer portal-shaped safety net in place.

MORE: Rivals Roundtable on most pressing ranking questions

ACC: Florida State

Let’s take a flyer on the Seminoles, a team picked second behind Duke in the preseason ACC coaches poll. Leonard Hamilton and his staff like this group … and for good reason. The Noles boast their usual length and depth. This year, however, the roster contains plenty of experience. Matthew Cleveland is being a little overlooked in the conversation about impact freshmen on the national level. Anthony Polite, who averaged more than 10 points per game as a junior last year, has the experience to lead this team. If RayQuan Evans, who started a number of games a season ago, finds consistency FSU could be especially dangerous.

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SEC: Alabama

I wouldn’t besmirch anyone for picking Kentucky, or even Arkansas, here, but gimme the Tide. Replacing Herbert Jones is a tall task, but the strength of this year’s squad will be its backcourt. Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford both return, while newcomer JD Davison spent his senior season in high school proving he’s more dynamic than he gets credit for being and that his game goes well beyond highlight-worthy dunks. The Tide have the depth and experience to pull this off. Plus, I’ll need to see something from revamped Kentucky following last year’s 9-16 disaster before I feel comfortable picking the Wildcats to lift a trophy.

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BIG TEN: Michigan

Sometimes the obvious pick is the correct one, and that seems like the case here. Hunter Dickinson is back and will be in the conversation for conference player of the year honors. Add in the fact that the touted big will be surrounded with last year’s top recruiting class - a group led by the versatile and explosive Caleb Houstan - and you’ve got a national title contender on your hands. How well talented Coastal Carolina transfer DeVante’ Jones adjusts to Big Ten basketball will help to determine how far the Wolverines go. Freshman Moussa Diabate has drawn rave reviews since arriving in Ann Arbor and could give the team more than anyone expected in his first season.

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BIG 12: Kansas

I’ve picked the Jayhawks to win the national title, so it stands to reason that I also stick with them in this space. The Jayhawks have won Big 12 titles with far less firepower, after all. We know what Arizona State transfer Remy Martin is capable of when surrounded by impact players, and this KU roster will provide him with a level of talent he’s never so much as sniffed. Kansas returns four starters from last year’s team and seems to have few holes on the offensive end. How the Jayhawks look on defense will be a major storyline, but it’s hard to see anyone outside of transfer-heavy Texas challenging KU in the league.

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Pac-12: UCLA

I actually tried to talk myself into Oregon in the interest of staying true to my contrarian nature, but I couldn’t do it. The Bruins return all five starters from last year’s unlikely Final Four team and will open the season brimming with confidence and depth. All-American candidate Johnny Juzang and the 16 points per game he averaged a season ago is back. And while he and ​​Tyger Campbell will get the bulk of the headlines, Jaime Jaquez is every bit as vital to this year’s squad. Repeating last year’s magical tournament run will be nearly impossible, but this roster is loaded with talent and should be the cream of the crop in the Pac-12.