RELATED: Fact or Fiction - Memphis is most intriguing college hoops team
No two situations are ever truly alike, but this young-and-celebrated Memphis roster radiates its share of 2007-08 Kansas State vibes.
As somebody that was on the K-State beat full time when the Wildcats managed to land the nation's top recruiting class that was headlined by two top 10 talents, it’s not difficult to cast Emoni Bates in the role of former No. 1 player in the country, Michael Beasley. Of course K-State didn’t have a dominant, NBA-bound big like Jalen Duren, but the Wildcats did manage to nab No. 7 overall prospect Bill Walker, one of the most athletic players in the class and an eventual pro. This Memphis squad is slightly more talented, but from a youth and star-power perspective things have a similar feel.
This comparison, of course, casts Penny Hardaway in the role of a young Frank Martin. In 2007, the Wildcats were hoping their new head coach would end an NCAA Tournament drought with one-and-done type talent. The hype was there and the national attention was accounted for, as was the top-25 preseason ranking.
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2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Rivals150
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If the parallels continue, Memphis should expect growing pains. I witnessed the ones in Manhattan (Kan.) firsthand. I was on hand for a New Year’s Eve game in Cincinnati that saw an 18-year-old Beasley forget his shoes at the hotel and struggle to the tune of 1-for-6 shooting in a borrowed pair of Nikes while the Wildcats suffered a 26-point loss to Xavier. There were nights when Walker and Beasley would stuff the box score only to take an "L" because the supporting cast no-showed. All this is to say that dominance from start to finish in FedExForum this season is unlikely.
The bar for a “successful run” shouldn’t be a Final Four. K-State didn’t win a single trophy in 2008 and was bounced from the NCAA Tournament in the second round. Still, the season managed to launch more than a decade of relative prosperity that included Big 12 titles and a couple of deep NCAA runs. It also kickstarted Martin’s successful head coaching career. A failure it was not.
Memphis seems to find itself in the same turning-point zone that presented itself during Martin’s first year in Manhattan, making the measure of what constitutes a success much bigger than one season or a single run in the tournament. In fact, whatever takes place in the months to come may well just be the start.
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FUTURECAST OF THE WEEK: Malik Reneau to Florida
It’s the 11th hour of the recruitment of four-star power forward Malik Reneau, and what has long looked like a sweepstakes destined to start and end in the Sunshine State now looks to include just two major players in Florida and Florida State. Things on this front have been tight for weeks, with neither school feeling exceptionally comfortable with where it stood in relation to the talented prospect’s recruitment. Now, with Reneau set to share his decision with the country at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, however, the end is near.
Reneau spent the weekend engaging in final Zoom meetings with a few of his finalists, including both FSU and UF. And while nothing is ever set in stone in recruitment until pen meets letter of intent, sources began to buzz about the Gators holding a slight edge in the wake of those calls. Anything is possible, of course, and that goes doubly for a recruitment that has been this tight, but I’m on the record with a UF prediction here.
That said, I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again in the future. So until Reneau makes his choice …
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A CLOSER LOOK: Nick Smith’s top eight
After leading his Brad Beal Elite squad to the Peach Jam title game in July, point guard Nick Smith shot into the top 20 of the Rivals150, and his recruitment seems to be briskly walking toward its conclusion. The five-star prospect recently trimmed his list to include Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Memphis and Arkansas Pine-Bluff. As is the case with most lists, however, not every school stands on level footing.
Smith has visited Alabama, Auburn and Kansas already, and will tour the campuses of Kentucky and Arkansas in the coming weeks. Visits have a way of changing things, sure, but, according to those close to the situation Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Auburn seem to be the most likely landing spots as things stand.
The sleeper in all this, however, is Overtime Elite. Officially, Smith has dropped them from consideration, but the fact that his former coach, Corey Fazier, now works for the organization - combined with OTE’s financial firepower - means it can’t totally be ruled out. Yes, Smith is much more likely to land in college and will almost certainly choose that route, but I’m not ready to ignore a pile of money and a coach with whom the guard is comfortable based on the trimming of an imaginary list. Let’s call Overtime a silent dark horse for the time being.
