The 2022-23 college basketball season is set to tip off on Nov. 7. While teams from coast to coast are already turning up with exhibition games, Rivals recruiting director Rob Cassidy takes a look ahead in the form of some preseason best bets. Below, he shares his picks for the national championship and the freshman of the year award as well as a look at a long shot bet that could have legs.
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NATIONAL TITLE PICK: HOUSTON (+1000)
I correctly picked Kansas (+1800 at the time) to win the national title in this space a year ago, and I’ll try to go back-to-back this season. Keep in mind, though, that for the boast in the previous sentence to work, you have to ignore the fact that I wrote my preview about the Jayhawks' title chances without once mentioning Ochai Agbaji. … Not ideal, but hey, whatever. You gotta take the wins where you can get them these days, right?
This year, I’m riding with the Cougars, who won 30 games and captured an AAC title despite battling significant injuries. Back are potential stars Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, each of whom spent the bulk of last season out of action and figure to have an enormous impact on the upcoming year. The piece that may put Houston over the top, however, is freshman Jarace Walker, whose trajectory down the backstretch of his high school career was more impressive than anyone’s. It was clear that the five-star forward was still taking massive strides from a skill perspective the last few times we saw him on a high school court. If that trajectory continues he could exceed the already-lofty expectations that surround him. Fellow freshman Terrance Arceneaux, a guard out of Beaumont, Texas, will also have an impact on the Cougars' season.
Sure, Kelvin Sampson’s team might not be the safest pick to hoist the trophy, but at +1000, it may be the best value based on a blend of talent, experience and coaching.
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FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR: Nick Smith (Arkansas)
The chase for national freshman of the year feels more unpredictable than it has recently, but Nick Smith has both the talent and the setting to seize the moment. The Razorbacks will be in search of production after losing four starters from last year’s Elite Eight team, and Smith stands to be the straw that stirs the drink for a young but hypertalented group in Fayetteville. The 6-foot-5 Smith is capable of taking over a game from a scoring standpoint, but it’s his court vision and passing ability that make him one of the more versatile and promising freshmen in the country.
The former five-star already has NBA front offices drooling over his potential at the next level, but how quickly he adjusts to the college game will likely determine how he figures into the freshman of the year battle. Smith has already experienced a robust exhibition schedule - including an offseason tour through Spain and Italy - to help the process. So, the talented newcomer could come out firing on all cylinders when the games begin to count.
These kinds of awards are unpredictable by nature, obviously, but Smith will have the playing time, skill and supporting cast to make a serious case.
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LIVE DOG: ARIZONA (+2200 to win the title)
If you’re looking for a long shot, why not go with the Wildcats? Tommy Lloyd’s first season at the helm was a dream, as the 47-year-old, first-time head coach took Arizona from “proud program embattled in scandal and looking to rebuild” to “33-4 and a Pac-12 title” in the blink of an eye.
Building off of such a debut will be difficult, but it’s clear that Lloyd has the chops to do so, even if he’ll need to replace NBA draft picks Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko. A deep pool of talent remains, as the Wildcats’ roster is headlined by Azuolas Tubelis, an All-Pac-12 honorable mention selection a year ago. The stars from last year may be gone, but Arizona has experience working in its favor as a handful of players that played significant minutes are back and ready to take the next step. How Texas transfer Courtney Ramey (12.2 points per game for the Longhorns last season) adjusts to his new home may determine how the Wildcats’ bid for a second straight conference title plays out.
Do I actually think the Wildcats will win the national title? Probably not, but there are much worse bets you can take at 22-to-1 odds. Long shots are long shots for a reason, after all.
