March 7, 2008

Jerry Meyer
Rivals.com Basketball Recruiting Analyst

Jerry Meyer is the national basketball recruiting analyst for Rivals.com. He tackles your questions in his weekly mailbag feature.
Previous mailbags
Feb 29: Looking ahead
Feb 22: Tinsley a wanted man
Feb 14: Who's next?

On the 2009 front, readers ask for breakdowns on Xavier Henry, Jordan Hamilton, Jamil Wilson and Ferrakohn Hall.

National Recruiting Analyst Jerry Meyer addresses these requests and more in this week's mailbag.

Jerry's Mailbag

Stock falling? Which players do you see that will rise or drop the most when the new rankings come out? Will you drop players like DeAndre Liggins, who hasn't loaded the stat sheet since transferring to play for a better team? -- Mike from Lexington ----- Yancy Gates and Dequan Jones are two players who immediately come to mind as players who will likely move up in the rankings. Both are superb athletes with a great physical build who have improved their skills and taken their play to another level during their senior seasons. As for Liggins, an important point to remember is Rivals.com doesn't rank prospects primarily on statistics. Liggins plays on a loaded Findlay Prep team that emphasizes a balanced attack. No one on that team is going to put up gaudy stats. Just like no one on Kansas' team is going to put up gaudy numbers. Generally, NBA personnel are intelligent enough to recognize the individual talent on a roster without getting caught up in statistics. We'd like to think we can gauge the prowess of a prospect without being fooled by numbers as well. Now, some statistical categories are important. Shooting percentages, rebounds in relation to minutes played and assist-to-turnover ratio are things that are considered. But even with these categories, an understanding of the context of these stats is important. For example, a player who has to take tough shots against other teams' best defenders is going to have a lower shooting percentage than if he were just taking wide-open shots against weaker defenders. With Liggins, he does a lot of things which give him value as a prospect that don't show up on the stat sheet. For one, he is a versatile defender capable of guarding three positions. Every defensive rebound he grabs has a strong potential of resulting in a transition basket on the other end. His ability to control tempo with his strength, ballhandling and vision is invaluable. We are ranking prospects based on their projected value at the college and NBA level - and certainly stats don't tell the whole story. We try to determine how great an impact a player will have ? and on how many possessions ? to determine value.

Hunt for Hall Where has 2009 prospect Ferrakohn Hall been this high school basketball season? After his play last summer, his recruitment began to pick up. Is he still a highly regarded prospect? -- Ryan from Murfreesboro ----- Hall is alive and well at Memphis White Station High School after transferring from Memphis University School - where he won the Division II state championship last year. Hall just regained his eligibility this week and helped White Station gain a berth into the Class AAA state tournament with a 71-66 win over Memphis Raleigh-Egypt. Hall scored 11 points, grabbed six rebounds and added three blocks. Coming out of the summer, Hall had offers from Memphis and Tennessee - along with strong interest from schools like Texas. Once Hall gets on the court this spring with Memphis YOMCA, his offers will grow. Long and athletic, Hall has the tools to be a dangerous hybrid forward. He was ranked the No. 60 prospect in the class of 2009 coming out of the summer.

Kobe comparison Hey Jerry, what are your thoughts about the 2009 phenoms Xavier Henry and Jordan Hamilton? Do you think KU has a chance to land Hamilton? Also, people are comparing Henry to a left-handed Kobe Bryant. What do you think? -- Sam from parts unknown ----- Henry and Hamilton are extremely dangerous wing scorers. They both have size and strength, a soft shooting touch and deep range. Hamilton, the No. 8 ranked prospect in the class of 2009, is a smooth athlete with a crafty game who can do damage in small spaces and has a knack for changing direction with the ball. When he puts his mind to it, Hamilton is a tough offensive rebounder. Henry, the No. 2 ranked prospect in the class of 2009, is a more explosive athlete than Hamilton. Henry is able to create scoring space with little effort. Kansas is in the mix for Hamilton, and Hamilton has stated recently that he wants to visit Lawrence, Kan. Texas, however, is the team to beat for Hamilton. It is going to be difficult for KU - or any other school - to overcome the Longhorns. Kansas' chances are much better with Henry, whose father Carl Henry played basketball for the Jayhawks. The Kansas connection to the Henry family doesn't stop there. Henry's mother attended the school, and his older brother C.J. Henry committed to play basketball at KU before he was drafted by the New York Yankees in the first round of the 2005 Major League Baseball draft. Memphis and North Carolina are also at the top of Henry's list, but it is tough to see him turning down the Jayhawks. I can understand the Kobe Bryant comparisons. Henry has all the tools of a great scoring wing. As a youngster, he still has room for improvement as a rebounder and defender. But his overall game has steadily improved since coming onto the national scene when he played in the NIKE Hoop Jamboree after his eighth grade year. Will he become one of the greatest scorers to ever play in the NBA like Bryant? That is a tough one to predict at this point, but it is possible.

Wilson on the move? What are your impressions of Jamil Wilson out of Racine from the 2009 class? What do you think the chances are that he chooses to play at Michigan State? Lastly, can you give your opinion (and a little description for each player) of MSU's 2008 class, consisting of Delvon Roe, Draymond Green, and Korie Lucious. -- Jacob from East Lansing ----- Wilson is a talented prospect with a strong motor and developing skill set. Presently, he is a little between the small forward and power forward position at 6-foot-7. He is just outside a five-star ranking at No. 33 in the class of 2009 because his quickness guarding the perimeter and his outside shooting have room for improvement. It wouldn't surprise me, however, if we see marked improvement in these areas this spring. Michigan State has offered Wilson, along with a number of other schools, but the in-state schools of Wisconsin and Marquette presently are the schools to beat. As for Michigan State's 2008 class, which is the No. 17 ranked recruiting class in the country, they will have some time to develop. Michigan State loses Drew Naymick and Drew Neitzel this season, but there are a lot of capable players waiting for playing time on the Michigan State bench. I do think Roe will vie for immediate playing time on the front line, assuming he is fully recovered from his knee surgery. Roe has a big-time motor and can give Michigan State's frontcourt some needed athleticism. Green has a nice skill set and a wide body but will likely need a year to work himself into the shape necessary to compete at a high level in the Big Ten. But there is no doubt that he has an intriguing skill set. Lucious could find a role as a long-range scoring threat, but I suspect it will take some time. Two point guards - Travis Walton and Kalin Lucas - are already in place. Chris Allen, who is a deep scoring threat with better size than Lucious, is hoping to get some of the minutes Neitzel played.

Hope for the Illini Jerry, Throw me a bone. I have been asking questions for years.... Where do you see Illinois' recruiting class ranking for 2009? Thanks. -- Jeremy from Springfield ----- Illinois is struggling on the court right now. Only Stan Simpson is signed out of the 2008 class, but help is on the way in a couple years with a strong 2009 recruiting class. The only 2009 recruiting class ahead of Illinois at this point is North Carolina's group of four five-star standouts. Illinois also has a four-man class, and three of those prospects are four-star players. D.J. Richardson enters the spring as the No. 53 ranked prospect. Joseph Bertrand is at No. 59. Tyler Griffey registers at No. 74. Brandon Paul is likely to enter the four-star ranks once we have the opportunity to evaluate him this spring. Illinois' fans have a lot to look forward to in the near future. The question is whether the basketball program can control the bleeding in the meantime.

Jerry Meyer is a national basketball recruiting analyst for Rivals.com. Click here to send him a question or comment for his Mailbag.